Supermarket trips rise to four-year high despite inflation seeing prices spike

Supermarket prices were 2.3% higher than a year ago last month, a modest increase from September's 2% rise, yet still within 'typical levels', say market experts Kantar

Grocery price inflation rose again in October, but it didn't stop households from hitting the supermarkets in droves, with shopping trips hitting a four-year peak, the latest data reveals.

Supermarket prices were 2.3% higher than a year ago last month, a modest increase from September's 2% rise, yet still within "typical levels", say market experts Kantar. Despite the price rises, take-home grocery sales surged by 2% in the four weeks leading up to November 3, racking up £11.6bn - the highest sales figure this year - as households made around 480 million trips to the shops.

Halloween played a part in driving up sales with over three million homes carving out pumpkins and sweet sales soaring; confectionery spending reached £525m, with chocolates and sweets sales jumping by 13% and 7% respectively.

Households are already stocking up for Christmas, with 648,000 shoppers having already bought a Christmas cake, and 14.4% of households picked up mince pies in October. Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said: "October 2024 was the busiest month for the supermarkets since March 2020, when people were preparing for the first national lockdown.

"Trip numbers have been going up gradually for some time, but this steady march hasn’t reached pre-Covid levels of shopping frequency just yet. The average for each household is slightly over four trips per week."

"What’s interesting this month is the number of households who are already stocking up the cupboards for the big day in December. Some people think Christmas ads hit our screens too soon but it’s clearly important for retailers to set out their stalls early."

Ocado has topped the growth table, with a sales increase of 9.5% over the past 12 weeks, while Lidl’s sales have risen by 7.4%, making it the fastest-growing retailer with a physical presence for the 15th consecutive period. Tesco's sales have outperformed the wider market, rising by 4.6% and taking its market share to 27.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from last year.

Meanwhile, Sainsbury’s saw a 4.4% climb in spending, bringing its overall market share to 15.5%. Asda’s sales have fallen by 5.5% compared to a year ago, holding a 12.5% market share, while Morrison’s sales grew by 2.4%, surpassing the market average for the first time since June 2021.

These figures emerge as numerous high street businesses, including Sainsbury’s and Asda, express concerns about the impact of tax increases in the Budget. Asda stated that the rise in employer taxes would "probably be inflationary to some degree", anticipating an additional £100m in costs.

Last week, Sainsbury’s warned of a £140m hit, while Marks & Spencer said it was expecting £60m in extra costs, which will be pushed higher by an increase to the national minimum wage.