Nuclear energy could play a vital role in Europe's clean energy mix

Learning from nuclear construction successes and failures can help reduce the cost of building nuclear energy in Europe. But even if these power plants turn out to be more costly than we would like, putting them to work can reduce overall energy costs.

We are now witnessing an energy revolution. We live in an age of electrification amid a climate crisis that demands clean energy solutions. Nuclear energy, an energy source that has faced skepticism for decades, might be key in solving this issue in conjunction with renewable energy sources.

The growing interest in nuclear energy signals a clear shift in the energy sector.

For instance, Microsoft is exploring a deal to reopen Unit 1 at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant at a price of around $100 per megawatt-hour for its electricity. While this price is higher than the levelized costs of solar and wind, it underscores the growing value of stable, year-round power.

This follows a trend among tech giants entering the nuclear energy space, driven by the desire for stable, emission-free power year-round.

A bigger role than previously anticipated

Our recent study of the European Power system to 2050, published in Applied Energy, shows that even costly nuclear energy can lead to a more affordable energy system overall. Most importantly, nuclear energy can reduce the need for costly power grid expansions and energy storage.

Moreover, it would lower environmental impacts, by reducing the amount of land needed for wind farms and solar energy farms, and can reduce air pollution. At the same time, nuclear energy can increase the value of renewable energy sources like solar and wind.

With more nuclear energy in the system, wind and solar resources are better utilized, reducing the share of renewable energy lost through curtailment. Moreover, solar power reaps higher returns on its electricity. Essentially, nuclear energy increases the value of installed renewables.

Toward the cheapest energy mix

The results from our research are illustrated in the figure below. Based on projected energy demand for achieving net-zero emissions through electrification, we identified the optimal mix of technologies to minimize energy costs through 2050.

The panel on the left shows what could happen if Europe successfully builds cheap, standardized nuclear energy. The panel on the right illustrates the consequences if Europe continues on a path of sluggish nuclear power plant construction. In this scenario, a greater portion of power demand is met by solar and wind energy. Nevertheless, in both scenarios, nuclear energy will grow and play a crucial role in the green transition.

The thickness of the curves represents the uncertainty tied to future consumption patterns in the power market. A consumption pattern that requires increasing amounts of stable power will make nuclear energy more valuable as a part of the energy mix.

Standard reactor designs can reduce costs

The difference between the two scenarios reflects the disparity in costs achieved in recent nuclear projects.

Affordable nuclear energy means Europe succeeds with the kind of development seen in Abu Dhabi (Barakah).

Costs were minimized by selecting a standard reactor design before construction to prevent cost and schedule overruns. Additionally, building multiple reactors at the same site further reduced costs by leveraging significant learning gains between the first and fourth unit

If Europe could learn to deploy nuclear in this way, nuclear energy can continue to be the largest single source of zero-emission energy in Europe for years to come.

Learning from earlier mistakes

Expensive nuclear energy will result if society fails to learn from recent projects like the Olkiluoto 3 project in Finland, which took 18 years to construct and bring on line. It also cost significantly more than anticipated.

In this first-of-a-kind project, only half of the design was completed before construction began, as well as regulatory intervention during construction that contributed to cost and time overruns. In the conservative scenario, where Europe does not manage to achieve the typical six to eight years construction time, large volumes of nuclear energy will be outcompeted by onshore wind power. However, nuclear energy will still maintain a prominent role in Europe's energy landscape.

Our research also shows that nuclear energy could even become relevant in hydropower-abundant countries like Norway. This will depend on several uncertain factors. Cost levels will be critical, but it also hinges on the extent of onshore wind development and the need for stable power driven by the electrification of heavy industry or the establishment of energy-intensive data centers for artificial intelligence.

Europe faces significant energy challenges, and nuclear energy may play an important role in solving many of these issues. For this to happen, Europe must reconsider its approach to nuclear energy, learn from past mistakes, and adopt a balanced energy policy that treats nuclear energy on par with other low-carbon energy sources. By doing so, we can ensure we have the tools necessary to tackle the challenges that lie ahead effectively.

Provided by Norwegian University of Science and Technology