EUR: 50bp from the ECB in December is not a done deal after all – ING

Yesterday was a day for the ECB hawks, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Pivotal US elections next Tuesday

“German and eurozone data surprised on the upside as did German October CPI. And the influential Isabel Schnabel said the ECB should not rush further rate cuts. This prompted around a 12bp repricing higher in the terminal rate for the ECB's easing cycle and finally saw the two-year EUR:USD swap rate differential narrow, supporting EUR/USD.”

“The same dynamic could be present in the European morning should the eurozone October flash CPI surprise on the upside and again pare back expectations for the ECB rate cut in December. These still stand at 34bp.”

“EUR/USD could retest yesterday's 1.0870 high on today's European data – but a move up to 1.09030 might be a bridge too far given the pivotal US elections next Tuesday.”

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