USD/CAD extends upside above 1.3600 on stronger US Dollar

• USD/CAD gathers strength to around 1.3620 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. 
• The upbeat job data prompted traders to scale back bets on further jumbo Fed rate reductions.
• Higher crude oil prices might cap the downside for the Loonie. 

The USD/CAD pair extends the rally to near 1.3620 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Strong labor market data on Friday caused traders to sharply ratchet back bets on aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate cuts, which boosts the US Dollar (USD) broadly. 

The US employment reports on Friday showed a rise in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and a decline in the Unemployment Rate, prompting traders to scale back bets on further Fed rate reductions. Investors expect the US central bank to cut rates by just 25 basis points (bps) in the November meeting, rather than 50 bps. This, in turn, provides some support to the USD. 

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, stalled near the highest level since mid-August around 102.50. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the markets are now pricing in around 85% chance of 25 bps Fed rate cuts in November, up from 31.1% last week. 

However, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Monday that he supported the Fed's decision to cut rates by 50 bps, adding that the balance of risks shifted from "high inflation towards maybe higher unemployment. Traders will take more cues from the speeches from the Fed’s Raphael Bostic, Phillip Jefferson and Susan Collins on Tuesday. Any dovish comments from the Fed officials could drag the Greenback lower against the Canadian Dollar (CAD). 

The upside of the pair might be limited as traders are concerned about oil supply disruption amid persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This might lift the commodity-link Loonie and act as a headwind for USD/CAD. Canada is the largest oil exporter to the United States (US), and higher crude oil prices tend to have a positive impact on the CAD value.

Canadian Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar?

The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar?

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar?

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar?

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

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