Supermarket prices rise again in October - but households visits are up

Grocery price inflation saw a slight uptick in October, yet UK households appeared undeterred as supermarket shopping trips hit a four-year peak, the latest figures have revealed. Supermarket prices were 2.3% higher than the same time last year, a modest increase from September's 2% rise, but still within "typical levels", Kantar's analysis suggests.

Despite the inflationary pressure, take-home grocery sales surged by 2.3% in the four weeks leading up to 3 November, reaching a total of £11.6 billion - the highest sales month this year. This surge coincided with households making 480 million shopping trips.

The Halloween festivities contributed to this boost, with over three million homes purchasing pumpkins and confectionery sales soaring; chocolate and sweets sales jumped by 13% and 7%, respectively. The festive spirit is also in the air early, with nearly 650,000 shoppers already having bought a Christmas cake, and 14.4% of households indulging in mince pies during October.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, commented: "October 2024 was the busiest month for the supermarkets since March 2020, when people were preparing for the first national lockdown."

He added that while shopping trip numbers are on a gradual rise, they haven't yet returned to pre-pandemic shopping frequency, with the current average slightly over four trips per week for each household.

"What’s interesting this month is the number of households who are already stocking up the cupboards for the big day in December. Some people think Christmas ads hit our screens too soon but it’s clearly important for retailers to set out their stalls early."

Ocado led the growth table, with a sales increase of 9.5% over the past 12 weeks, while Lidl saw a 7.4% rise in sales, making it the fastest-growing retailer with a physical presence for the 15th consecutive period. Tesco's sales rose by 4.6%, taking its market share to 27.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from last year, while Sainsbury’s saw a 4.4% increase in spending, bringing its overall market share to 15.5%.

Asda’s sales fell by 5.5% compared to last year, holding 12.5% of the market, while Morrison’s sales grew by 2.4%, surpassing the market average for the first time since June 2021. These figures come as numerous high street businesses, including Sainsbury’s and Asda, have voiced concerns about the impact of tax increases in the Budget.

Asda stated that the rise in employer taxes would "probably be inflationary to some degree", expecting to face an additional £100 million in costs. Last week, Sainsbury’s warned of a £140 million hit, while Marks & Spencer said it was expecting £60 million in extra costs, which will be pushed higher by an increase to the national minimum wage.