Study reveals impact of smoking elimination on global life expectancy

Smoking is a leading risk factor for preventable death and ill health globally, accounting for more than one in ten deaths in 2021. While rates of smoking have fallen substantially over the past three decades, the pace of decline varies and has slowed in many countries. Cancers, ischemic heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are—and will continue to be—the leading causes of premature deaths from smoking. Together, these conditions account for 85% of potentially avoidable years of life lost (YLLs)—a measure of premature deaths.

Several countries have set ambitious goals to reduce smoking rates to below 5% in the coming years. However, there is still significant opportunity to expand and strengthen proven policies and interventions to achieve these targets.

Professor Stein Emil Vollset, senior author, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)We must not lose momentum in efforts to reduce, and ultimately eliminate, smoking around the world. Our findings highlight that millions of premature deaths could be avoided by bringing an end to smoking.”

The authors produced estimates using IHME’s Future Health Scenarios platform, which uses data from the GBD study. The new analysis provides in-depth forecasts of the health burden for 204 countries, broken down by age and sex, from 2022 until 2050. It is the first study to comprehensively forecast the health impacts due to smoking for all countries and all causes, as well as on 365 diseases and injuries. The main measure studied was YLLs, a measure of premature deaths, counting each death by the remaining life expectancy at the age of death. For example, if the ideal life expectancy is 91 years, and someone dies at age 50, that would result in 41 YLLs. This is because they lost 41 years that they could have potentially lived.

The platform enabled researchers to forecast unique populations for each scenario, allowing them to account for changing population dynamics across the scenarios.

The authors acknowledge some limitations to their study. Only the direct effects of reductions in tobacco smoking on health were estimated, meaning overall health benefits may be underestimated as the impact of associated reductions in second-hand smoke exposure was not analyzed. The analysis did not account for the possible health effects of e-cigarettes. The estimates also could not account for potential future accelerations in healthcare improvements, such as in improved lung cancer detection or treatment.

Source:

The Lancet

Journal reference:

GBD 2021 Tobacco Forecasting Collaborators. (2024). Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The Lancet Public Health. doi.org/10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00166-x.