Anticipating socio-technical tipping points to facilitate positive change

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As global climate targets tighten, radical and disruptive changes are becoming inevitable. In this context, the concept of tipping points, by which small changes can trigger rapid systemic transformation, is attracting increasing attention in the social sciences. In a new study published in the journal Global Environmental Change, a team from the Research Institute for Sustainability—Helmholtz Centre Potsdam (RIFS) draws on two case studies to show that socio-technical tipping points can be anticipated.

"The ability to anticipate socio-technical tipping points with sufficient accuracy would enable policymakers to adjust near-term policy to facilitate positive change," says RIFS researcher and lead author Franziska Mey. "In recent years, the tipping point concept has found resonance in the social sciences, where positive tipping points are understood as 'opportunities of change.' In contrast, in climate science tipping points generally have negative consequences for Earth systems."

In order to substantiate the thesis that tipping points can be anticipated, the authors of "Anticipating socio-technical tipping points" analyzed two cases of social and technological transitions at different stages and in different contexts: the introduction of electric vehicles and photovoltaics.

"One conclusion of this empirical study is that socio-technical tipping points can be anticipated if we observe not only the whole system but the individual elements that make up the system. Crucially, a tipping point is reached when qualitative change occurs across all of the system's elements," explained Mey.

The team of authors identify seven system elements such as technological performance, the relevance of new technology, policies and regulations, but also public opinion.

Has the electric vehicle market in Germany reached a tipping point?

In a case study focusing on the electric vehicle market in Germany, the authors show that many of the aforementioned elements (in particular nationwide charging infrastructure and public acceptance of electric vehicles) are still lacking. For example, the public discourse on the life cycle assessment and environmental impact of battery-powered vehicles compared to vehicles with combustion engines in Germany has focused on the potentially negative effects of battery production and material procurement.

This, together with concerns around battery life and the availability of charging infrastructure, has fueled public reluctance. This skepticism is reflected in public surveys: In 2022, around 24% of Germans indicated that they would be willing to purchase an electric vehicle, compared to just 17% in 2023. The abrupt scrapping of state subsidies for electric vehicles in 2023 further dampened interest in electromobility.

A growing populist right-wing movement in Germany is also sowing doubt and frames EVs as symbols of climate activism and green politics. If tipping points are triggered by an accumulation of positive feedback loops within a system, as the authors argue, then Germany's electric vehicle market still has a long way to go to reach its tipping point—especially with regard to the acceptance of e-mobility.

German market for photovoltaics is on the verge of tipping

The case study of the photovoltaic sector, on the other hand, shows that in Germany most system elements have shifted into a state of positive feedback over the past two decades, so that a turning point is discernible, although it has not yet happened. Photovoltaics is now one of the most affordable energy generation technologies available. However, technology is only one part of the equation.

According to the authors, technology alone is not enough to bring about sectoral change. They point to a misfit with existing markets, which are based on fossil fuels, and the delayed expansion of the transmission and distribution grids needed for the energy transition.

"Accelerating the expansion and upgrade of the transmission grid will push the sector towards a tipping point," says Mey. The authors surmise that the technology element of a system has the greatest potential to tip rapidly, and that it may have to tip first in order to build pressure and create a sense of direction for subsequent system changes.

The authors point out that their publication aims to illustrate that tipping points can indeed be anticipated, but that further work is needed to refine, update and expand the concept presented here for further cases.

More information: Franziska Mey et al, Anticipating socio-technical tipping points, Global Environmental Change (2024). DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102911

Provided by Forschungsinstitut für Nachhaltigkeit Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam