'Nostalgic' family cars that will soon 'disappear' from UK roads

The Hyundai Coupe has topped the ranking of models that are predicted to face extinction in the UK, followed by the Renault Megane and the Ford Mondeo

A fresh study has unveiled the top ten car models that are predicted to 'go extinct' first in the UK, with the Hyundai Coupe leading the pack. The research was conducted by experts at Ovoko, a car parts marketplace, who compiled a list of the most popular petrol and diesel car models from YouGov and calculated their rate of decline based on the number of UK registrations.

This allowed them to determine whether the models were on the rise or decline and estimate when each would reach near-zero registrations or 'extinction'. The Hyundai Coupe topped the list, expected to hit nearly zero registrations by August 28, 2026, giving it less than two years until its projected extinction date - the shortest time among all popular models.

The Renault Megane came in second, with an estimated extinction date of July 7, 2029, leaving it with just four years and nine months. The Ford Mondeo took third place, with a predicted 'time of death' on May 24, 2033, leaving this once common sight on UK roads with roughly eight years and seven months until it hits a critical number of registrations.

Another Renault model, the Scenic, landed in fourth place, expected to reach almost no registrations by January 13, 2034, giving it just over nine years at its current rate of decline. The Ford Ka is next in line, ranking fifth. It's predicted that by February 18, 2035, the Ka will have almost no registrations, giving it roughly 10 years and four months before it becomes extinct.

The Toyota Avensis takes the sixth spot, with an expected extinction date of August 19, 2037, leaving it with about 12 years and 10 months. The Audi A2 is seventh on the list. If its decline continues at the current rate, it will have virtually no registrations by February 28, 2046, meaning it has around 21 years and five months left. The Kia Carens is projected to become extinct by January 10, 2049, placing it eighth in the ranking and giving it approximately 24 years and three months.

The Mazda 6 is ninth, with an estimated extinction date of April 18, 2049, which equates to roughly 24 years and six months. Finally, the Jeep Cherokee rounds out the top ten. This model is expected to have almost no registrations by June 3, 2050, leaving it with about 25 years and eight months until it becomes extinct.

Vytas Palovis, vice president of growth at Ovoko, said: “Petrol and diesel car models are facing a swift decline as the automotive industry shifts towards electric vehicles. With increasing regulatory pressures, stricter emissions standards, and growing consumer demand for eco-friendly options, many traditional fuel-powered cars are likely to see a critical drop in registrations in the coming years and some models may become extinct altogether.

“Many of these models have become icons, representing decades of automotive design, engineering milestones, and a sense of nostalgia that can't be replaced by modern alternatives. It is bittersweet to witness the gradual extinction of cars that have left such a lasting imprint on driving culture.”

Methodology

Extinction was defined in this analysis as the number of registrations being less than or equal to 15% of the number of registrations at its peak. The most famous car models for Quarter 2 2024 were scraped from YouGov. Per model, the number of registrations per quarter from Q1 2009 - Q1 2024 was gathered from the UK Government.

For each model, the quarter that the maximum number of registrations occurred was its peak. If the peak was less than 10 quarters away from 2024, it used the "Rising" calculation. If not, it used the "In Decline" calculation.

The geometric mean of quarterly post-peak decline was calculated per model and the number of quarters it would take for a model to reach 15% of its peak registrations was calculated. This was converted to years and added onto the year and quarter the peak occurred to give an estimated date of extinction.

From the "In Decline" data, a model was made. This uses peak period, the number of quarters away from a model's peak (negative if before the peak, positive if after). For all "In Decline" models, the average percentage change in registrations from the previous quarter per peak period was calculated.

For all "Rising" models, the most recent percentage change was compared with the average percentage changes per peak period to predict where the data would peak at if it continued. The estimated peak was added to the average number of years to fall to 15% of peak registrations from the "In Decline" calculations to get an estimated date of extinction.

All models were then ranked and sorted from the earliest to the latest date of extinction. All models analysed were petrol or diesel and electric cars were not included.