Private home prices fall 1.1% in third quarter, first dip in a year; HDB prices rise
by Lee Chong Ming · CNA · JoinSINGAPORE: Private housing prices fell in the third quarter of the year as sales momentum slowed, according to flash estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Tuesday (Oct 1).
The private residential property price index decreased by 1.1 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter of this year, reversing the 0.9 per cent increase in the previous quarter.
It is the first time prices have dipped since the second quarter of 2023.
Sales transaction volume also fell by about 11 per cent on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the third quarter of this year, URA said.
For the first three quarters of 2024, the overall private housing prices saw an increase of 1.1 per cent, a significant moderation from the 3.9 per cent gain over the same period in 2023.
For the first three quarters of 2024, sales transaction volume fell by 8.1 per cent from the level a year ago.
PRIVATE PROPERTIES
Prices for landed properties decreased by 3.8 per cent in the third quarter, compared to the 1.9 per cent increase in the previous quarter.
For non-landed private properties, prices decreased by 0.3 per cent this quarter, a reversal from the 0.6 per cent increase in the previous quarter.
Prices for non-landed properties in the Core Central Region (CCR) saw the largest dip of 1.5 per cent this quarter, extending the 0.3 per cent decrease in the previous quarter.
Prices in the Outside Central Region (OCR) fell by 0.1 per cent, compared to the 0.2 per cent increase in the previous quarter.
Non-landed private property prices in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) increased by 0.2 per cent, moderating from the increase of 1.6 per cent in the previous quarter.
The fall in prices can be attributed to several factors. These include the lower demand and fewer launches during the Hungry Ghost Festival and September school holidays, said property analysts.
Many prospective buyers may have exhibited greater caution in their purchasing decisions, as they were “more restrained in their affordability due to the elevated cost of living and interest rates”, said Ms Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at OrangeTee Group.
Others could have refrained from making purchases as they were anticipating a potential decrease in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in September.
The URA warned that despite the recent interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, domestic mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated, relative to the low levels seen over the past decade.
"While macroeconomic conditions remain sound, the economic outlook is subject to uncertainties, and market sentiments continue to be sensitive to geopolitical developments and global interest rate changes," said the authority.
It urged people to "continue to exercise prudence" when buying properties and taking on mortgage loans.
The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in contracts submitted for stamp duty payment and data on units sold by developers up until mid-September.
URA will release its full set of real estate statistics for the third quarter of 2024 on Oct 25.
OUTLOOK
PropNex's head of research and content Wong Siew Ying said there might be an improvement in buyer sentiment following the bumper rate cut by the US Federal Reserve last month.
Ms Sun said she does not expect an "immediate surge" in purchases despite the rate cut, as most financial institutions have already factored in the adjustments in their mortgage plans.
"However, should the Federal Reserve continue to lower interest rates in the coming months, buying sentiment is expected to improve as housing becomes more affordable," she added.
"Moreover, the decrease in interest rates may prompt individuals to consider purchasing larger homes or properties in upscale locations, since their mortgage payments have been reduced."
Ms Wong also noted that there are several launches coming up in the fourth quarter of the year.
Developers are strategically planning new launches to take advantage of the anticipated increase in buyer activity, said Mr Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at Singapore Realtors Inc.
“Projects such as Norwood Grand, Meyer Blue, Emerald of Katong, and The Chuan Park are well-positioned to attract strong interest due to their strategic locations and competitive pricing.
“This influx of new projects is expected to fuel momentum, setting the stage for a robust market rebound as buyer confidence strengthens in response to lower interest rates,” he added.
HDB RESALE PRICES INCREASE
Prices of Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats rose 2.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter of this year, according to flash estimates.
Resale volume up to Sep 29 came in at 8,035, which is 20 per cent higher than that in the same period last year.
“Resale transactions that have surpassed the million-dollar mark continued to make up a small proportion of total resale transactions, and the vast majority of resale flats were transacted at a much lower price in (the) third quarter of 2024,” HDB said.
The increase in the third quarter's resale prices and volume was driven by "strong broad-based demand, as well as some supply tightness in the market" with fewer flats meeting the minimum occupation period in 2024 compared with last year.
The latest statistics on the HDB resale market "largely reflect" market conditions prior to the lowering of the loan-to-value (LTV) limit for HDB loans from 80 per cent to 75 per cent in August.
“The government will continue to monitor the property market closely and adjust its policies as necessary to promote a stable and sustainable property market,” HDB said.
“Meanwhile, households are strongly advised to exercise prudence in their property purchases as the property market moves in cycles and those who buy high will be hit harder when prices eventually come down.”
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