WTI falls to near $71.00 as worries about potential supply disruptions from Iran ease

• WTI depreciates as Israel is willing to refrain from targeting Iranian oil facilities.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed the US that Israel plans to attack Iranian military targets rather than nuclear or Oil infrastructure.
• OPEC Monthly Market Report revised down its global Oil demand growth outlook for 2024 and 2025.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price continues its decline for the third successive session, trading around $71.10 per barrel during Tuesday’s Asian hours. Crude Oil prices are facing downward pressure following a media report suggesting that Israel is willing to refrain from targeting Iranian oil facilities, easing concerns about potential supply disruptions.

The Washington Post reported on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed the United States (US) that Israel plans to focus on Iranian military targets rather than nuclear or Oil infrastructure. Last week, Oil prices had gained support as investors feared supply risks after Israel indicated plans to retaliate against a missile attack from Iran.

On Monday, Crude Oil prices dropped nearly 5% following the release of the OPEC Monthly Market Report, which revised its global Oil demand growth outlook for 2024 and 2025. OPEC also cut its forecast for China's crude oil demand growth for the third consecutive month in October, citing the growing adoption of electric vehicles and sluggish economic growth as key factors.

The Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) suggests China's crude Oil demand will expand by 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024. This estimate is down from the 650,000 bpd gain forecast in September and is also 180,000 bpd below the rise of 760,000 bpd OPEC was predicting in July for the world's biggest oil importer.

Oil market sentiment has turned pessimistic due to China's increasing deflationary pressures, which have raised concerns about slowing economic growth. Despite recent stimulus plans, uncertainty surrounding the size of the package has failed to alleviate fears of downside risks to China's economic outlook, further dampening traders' confidence.

Saudi Arabia could ramp up production amid declining cohesion among OPEC+ members. Despite voluntary production cuts, OPEC+ producers have been overproducing by as much as 800,000 barrels per day. The Saudi oil minister cautioned that prices could fall to $50 per barrel if member countries do not adhere to the agreed-upon cuts.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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