EUR/USD: Consolidating on the day – OCBC

Euro (EUR) continued to trade near recent lows amid broad USD strength, softer EU data and dovish ECBspeaks, which led markets to price in more dovish expectations (near 40% probability of 50bp cut at Dec meeting). EUR was last seen at 1.0818, OCBC’s FX analyst Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

RSI is still near oversold conditions

“EU-UST yield differentials have also widened over the last few weeks, resulting in EUR falling. The risk of a Trump outcome also setup the threat of 10% tariff on all US imports and this may also undermine EUR. But with much negativity in the price, we do caution for the risk of rebound if EU data this week surprise to the upside.3Q GDP will be one to watch on Wed and CPI estimate will be key on Thu.”

“Momentum remains bearish though there are signs of it fading while RSI is still near oversold conditions. Resistance at 1.0830 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2024 low to high), 1.0870 (200 DMA), 1.0910/30 levels (21, 100 DMAs). Support at 1.0780, 1.0740 (76.4% fibo).”

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