GBP/USD attracts some buyers above 1.2950, US presidential election looms

• GBP/USD drifts higher to around 1.2970 in Monday’s early Asian session, up 0.40% on the day. 
• The USD remains under selling pressure amid weaker US NFP data, uncertainty around the US presidential election.  
• The BoE is expected to trim the rate by a quarter-point to 4.75%.

The GBP/USD pair jumps to near 1.2970 on the softer Greenback during the Asian trading hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) remains under some selling pressure after the weaker US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for October, which provides some support to the major pair. 

After delivering a 50 basis points (bps) rate reduction in September to start the easing cycle, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to cut its policy rate by 25 bps in the November meeting. Markets are pricing this outcome with a roughly 97% probability. The Greenback edges lower as traders brace for the US presidential election and Fed interest rate decision this week. 

Analysts expect Donald Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts, and tariffs would put upward pressure on inflation, treasury bond yields, and the USD, while Kamala Harris was seen as the continuity candidate. "It is widely considered that a Trump win will be positive for the USD, though many feel this outcome has been discounted," noted Chris Weston, an analyst at broker Pepperstone. 

On the other hand, the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to cut interest rates on Thursday, despite forecasts that Labour’s budget could lead to higher inflation in the UK the next year. Money markets appeared confident that the BoE would announce the second 25 bps reduction of the year, lowering the policy rate to 4.75%.

Pound Sterling FAQs

What is the Pound Sterling?

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling?

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

How does economic data influence the value of the Pound?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound?

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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