Markets Celebrate Loosening Interest Rate Cycle

Thursday, September 19th, 2024

Markets celebrated the Fed’s loosening of interest rates yesterday with a big swell in valuations across the board today. Investors had concerned themselves that a 50 basis-point (bps) move might be displaying a perceived economic downturn from the Fed, but with some time to reflect, this no longer seems to be the case.

The Dow gained +522 points today, good for an increase of +1.26%. The S&P 500 grew +95 points, +1.70%, while the Nasdaq topped the field, up +440 points, +2.51%. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose +46 points or +2.10% on the session.
 

Existing Home Sales Down 14th Straight Month

The news on August Existing Home Sales earlier today was actually not terrible: 3.86 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units was down a smidge from the 3.9 million expected and the 3.96 million reported for July, but the Midwest saw no decline in sales, and the Northeast did not come down in price. Sales overall came in -2.5% for the month, -4.2% year over year.

The Median Price for a home rose slightly: +3.1%, to an average $416,700 per home. Inventories crept up +0.7% and now stand at a 4.2-month supply. So starting from here to see mortgage rates come down enough to bring more home buyers to market might present a favorable scenario for the housing industry before long.

Leading Economic Indicators Down on Aging Data

The August report for U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) showed a slight improvement on headline: -0.2% versus -0.3% expected, and followed an unrevised -0.6% the previous month. But sentiment was still pretty gloomy overall, with weak new orders and a negative view of the economy going forward. It’s also the sixth-straight downward print.

That said, the report cited things like the long period of a yield-curve inversion weighing on sentiment. As of September, that yield curve is no longer inverted. And with a 50 basis-point (bps) cut to interest rates yesterday and another 50 bps on the way by the end of the year, we just may see the storm clouds parting as of LEI reports in the months to come.

FedEx Posts Big Miss on Q1 Earnings

For fiscal Q1, global delivery and logistics giant FedEx (FDX Quick QuoteFDX - Free Report) posted earnings far below consensus: $3.60 per share versus expectations of $4.82. Revenues were also lower than anticipated: $21.6 billion versus $22.06 billion analysts were looking for. Full-year earnings guidance remains in-line with previous estimates.

The company, in its press release, did not blame weakness in China for the big miss. Expect the conference call this afternoon to have a few questions regarding this. And shares are trading down -9% in after-hours, but this may have been even worse has FedEx not also announced an accelerated share repurchase (ASR) of $1 billion. This is the second earnings miss for FedEx in the last four quarters.

Lennar Home Crushes Q3 Estimates

Miami, FL-based Lennar Corp. (LEN Quick QuoteLEN - Free Report) outperformed estimates on both top and bottom lines this afternoon: earnings of $4.26 per share on revenues of $9.4 billion in the quarter easily surpassed the $3.62 per share and $9.29 billion expected, respectively. Its average sale price for a home reached $422K net of incentives to home buyers, $425K without.

There will be a conference call tomorrow morning, and the biggest question may be why Gross Margins came is slightly below estimates, to 22.5%. Deliveries were up +16% and New Orders were +5% in the quarter, but Gross Margins on guidance are flat with the quarter just reported. Shares are trading the news, -1.8%, off gains to +30% year to date.

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