Project Kuiper's tech resembles Starlink's, but its $2 trillion backer changes the game

09 Oct 2024, 18:16 by Chris Thomas · Android Police

Providing powerful broadband internet solutions to fiber-starved customers around the world, Starlink's never-before-seen combination of price, speed, and reliability quickly elevated it to natural monopoly status. Potential competitors' chances to gain footholds, and eventually significant market shares, hinge on having some kind of notable advantage over Starlink's head start.

Amazon could provide that edge. Project Kuiper, officially Kuiper Systems, LLC, builds on the same concept of using satellite intermediaries between users and internet-connected ground stations. While Starlink's expedient beginning captured its intended market almost immediately, Amazon's diversity could position Project Kuiper as a long-term contender in more than just consumer internet access.

What is Starlink?

Starlink's satellites are bringing the internet to the world. Here's how they work, what they're about, and what the future holds

Bouncing signals off space mirrors

How Project Kuiper and Starlink are alike

Source: NASA

Project Kuiper substitutes fast-moving satellites in low earth orbit (LEO) for stationary relays of the geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) utilized by older satellite providers such as HughesNet. A somewhat bitter, predictable feud between Earth's two richest people preceded Starlink and Project Kuiper, each settling on three distinct orbital shells, or collections of evenly distributed circular orbits, in the neighborhood of 600km from Earth's surface.

Both systems' satellites will hum along at about 7,600m/s (17,000mph). They employ Hall-effect ion thrusters that combine with onboard detection and ground-based monitoring to avoid collision with other objects. Starlink satellites last for 5 years, and Kuiper's for 7, after which both will gradually deorbit via thrust before mostly burning up on re-entry.

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Upload speeds don't have to be slow

Compared to GEO, LEO relays' narrower coverage requires dense, fast-moving constellations for consistent connections. Starlink has over 6,400 of its roughly 13,000 FCC-approved units in orbit, with goals of 30,000 more; Project Kuiper has 3,236 satellites planned in three shells. Instead of the bulky dishes of older satellite connectivity, the LEO networks' hardware utilizes arrays of offset-phase antennas, which use motorless beamforming for precise signaling.

Starlink's first relatively small relays weighed 200kg-300kg, and have since been critically upgraded to v2 and v2 mini models weighing roughly 1,200kg and 800kg. The planned Starlink satellite generations will eventually reach 2,000kg; launch capacity estimates place Kuiper's initial designs at 600kg-700kg. Despite the mass differences, both are still around the upper end of most LEO satellite dimensions.

Months after beta testing opened, Starlink upgraded to match Kuiper's 100Gbps, inter-satellite optical communication (called laser links) for better coverage and network management. Both also leverage the high-powered Ka frequency band for ground station downlinks. Despite the similarities, though, Bezos' and Musk's brainchildren are far from identical.

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Similar technology, different pathways to success

The two projects' ground-up designs demand various subtle technical differences. In one example, Amazon plans to beam data to users on the Ka frequency band. Starlink's Ku band transmission offers less theoretical bandwidth, but penetrates obstructions like dense clouds with lower signal loss, or attenuation.

In addition, the opposing satellites utilize different shapes, thrusters, coatings, and other details — with many kept tightly under wraps, or making only circumstantial differences. Understanding Starlink and Project Kuiper's biggest divergence requires taking into account long-term plans, cross-industry assets, and corporate methodologies, which combine to predict a different modern space race than many observers expect.

Established dominance vs. long-haul connectivity

Why Starlink has an edge over any newcomer

Source: Wikipedia

Seven years after Starlink's announcement, its estimated $6.8 billion 2024 revenue surprised even previously skeptical analysts. Musk's willingness to push his vision, hype products, and fund risky projects literally got the project off the ground. Direct access to the relatively low-cost and prolific Falcon 9 launch system helped considerably, too.

Amazon's uphill battle includes buying launch contracts from ULA, Arianespace, and competitor SpaceX, on top of its Blue Origin program. The Vulcan Centaur and Ariane 6 rockets recently flew initial test flights at long last, with Blue Origin's launch system purportedly nearing completion following the New Glenn's setbacks.

Source: Starlink

Project Kuiper's timeline — or lack thereof — presents its biggest stumbling block. Its two test satellites worked perfectly and are currently deorbiting. But nothing's followed yet, with recent reports implying functional Kuiper launches won't begin until mid-2025.

Continued FCC approval depends on 1,600 Kuiper satellites launching by July 27, 2026. In comparison, Starlink and its rocket-owning CEO managed just 800 serviceable satellites in orbit the first year. In other words, Project Kuiper will miss the FCC deadline, although it could receive an extension if launches ramp up enough by 2026. But a roster of only a few hundred orbiting satellites by that summer could spell trouble.

How Project Kuiper can compete with Starlink

Source: Amazon

Despite rumors of Bezos' satellite aspirations serving mostly to spite his rival, Amazon's versatile business strengths and Starlink's narrower corporate scope could pave Kuiper's way to legitimate competition. And rural, direct-to-consumer internet access, where Starlink excels, hardly seems to be Amazon's top priority. This is where Project Kuiper has an edge, but there's a bit more to consider, too:

Amazon's incredible size: Bigger companies can wait longer for a return on investment. Amazon's nearly $2 trillion market cap means Project Kuiper could afford to operate at a loss for some time.
Preliminary contracts with industry leaders: South American and Japanese telecoms companies, plus US carrier Verizon and intercontinental provider Vodafone, have empowered Project Kuiper with future internet and cell network responsibilities. Amazon is already planning ISP integrations with critical services like hospitals and schools.
Client preference for Amazon's management: The most security-focused groups worldwide may avoid Starlink due to its mercurial, often jarring CEO and practices.
Competitive orbital launcher advancement: The reusable New Glenn is one of many in-development launcher programs from public and private efforts worldwide.
Amazon Prime's huge userbase: Without suggesting Prime will offer internet bundles (although anything's possible), Amazon's acumen in developing, marketing, and maintaining vertically integrated systems will contribute heavily to Kuiper's success.

One final, major reason should stop us from counting Project Kuiper out, and that's how Amazon already owns the internet — more than any other company, at least — so owning the internet in space isn't a stretch.

Amazon is an infrastructure company at heart

Dedicated to large-scale investment in the future

Source: AWS

Amazon Web Services controls more of the underlying internet components and engineering than any other company. A direct, high-bandwidth, low-latency connection without intermittent ISPs offers clients the most secure internet connectivity yet imagined. This removes one of the biggest external layers that could compromise the most sensitive organizations.

AWS isn't Kuiper's only ace in the hole. Amazon's scope demands incredible bandwidth for distribution centers, development labs, field-testing units, and other operations around the globe. Amazon will be its own top portfolio the moment Bezos' satellite connectivity dream is realized. And the tech, retail, organizational, and communications giant already has satellite ground stations up and running, with direct fiber connections to the worldwide web.

Bezos touted Amazon's dedication to wide-ranging and sometimes unconventional industrial investment in his (PDF warning) first-ever post-IPO shareholder letter. For Ballmer and Microsoft, it was developers, developers, developers. With Musk, it's rockets and cars. To Bezos, it's infrastructure all the way down, with Project Kuiper's moonshot aiming to lift Amazon's dominance into space. May the best satellite win.