WSU jumps three spots to No. 18 in second round of CFP rankings

PULLMAN — After two rounds of rankings, Washington State is still on the outside looking in on the College Football Playoff.

That’s the word from the second round of CFP rankings, which pegged WSU at No. 18 in Tuesday’s reveal show on ESPN, up three spots from last week. The Cougars (8-1) are six spots out of the 12-team field, which is expanding for the first time this season.

New rounds of CFP rankings will come out the next three Tuesdays until the final field is revealed on Dec. 8.

WSU, which is No. 19 in the AP poll, has three regular-season games remaining: at New Mexico on Saturday, at Oregon State on Nov. 23 and home vs. Wyoming on Nov. 30. The Cougs will almost certainly need to win all three to give themselves an outside shot at making the field, but even in that scenario, they would need help from teams above them.

It’s likely WSU needs to 1) win those three games by convincing margins to overcome a middling strength of schedule and 2) benefit from losses by teams ranked above them. The Cougars’ best win this season is a 37-16 win over Texas Tech (6-4), which is one of their two wins over bowl-eligible teams. San Jose State is the other.

After that, WSU’s best win might be a 24-19 Apple Cup victory over Washington – which, at 5-5, is still fighting for bowl eligibility. Beyond that, none of WSU’s wins would seem to catch the eyes of the CFP committee, even if the Cougars finish 11-1.

For WSU, it’s another unfortunate byproduct of getting left behind in the Pac-12. The Cougars can rack up wins by the bushel, but short of going 12-0, there may not be much they can do to move the needle. Their schedule includes eight games against Mountain West opponents, six courtesy of a Pac-12/MWC scheduling agreement that provided WSU and OSU with games for this season, and they dropped a game against Boise State, which is No. 13 in the second CFP rankings.

So what would need to happen for WSU To make the 12-team field? The Cougs would benefit from losses from teams above them, including No. 14 SMU, No. 16 Kansas State and No. 17 Colorado. The first two teams out of the initial rankings are No. 12 Georgia and No. 14 SMU.

If the Cougars do win out, ESPN gives them a 13% chance to make the field, a figure generated using ESPN’s Football Power Index to simulate the college football season 200,000 times.

The top 12 in the second round of CFP rankings:

1. Oregon

2. Ohio State

3. Texas

4. Penn State

5. Indiana

6. BYU

7. Tennessee

8. Notre Dame

9. Miami

10. Alabama

11. Ole Miss

13. Boise State