What to watch for when Seahawks host 49ers, plus Bob Condotta’s prediction

09 Oct 2024, 16:09 by Bob Condotta · The Seattle Times

Week 6: 49ers at Seahawks

When: Thursday, 5:15 p.m.

Where: Lumen Field

TV: Amazon and KCPQ-13 in Seattle with Al Michaels (play-by-play), Kirk Herbstreit (analyst) and Kaylee Hartung (sidelines).

Most recent game in series: This is the 51^st meeting between the two NFC West rivals. The Seahawks lead the series 29-21, but the 49ers have won the last four in the regular season and five in a row including a wild-card playoff game in 2023. The 49ers won last year’s games 31-13 in Seattle and 28-16 in Santa Clara.

Point spread: 49ers by 3.5 points (via VegasInsider).

Key injuries: The Seahawks will be without rookie defensive tackle Byron Murphy II, edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu and cornerback Riq Woolen, who all were declared out on Wednesday. Still in question is the status of safety Julian Love, who is questionable with a hamstring injury and considered a game-time decision. The 49ers continue to play without star running back Christian McCaffrey who has yet to play this season with calf and Achilles tendinitis issues. The 49ers will also be without standout safety Talanoa Hufanga because of a wrist, and this week signed veteran kicker Matthew Wright to fill in for Jake Moody, who injured his ankle Sunday.

Last week’s games: The Seahawks fell to 3-2 with a 29-20 loss to the New York Giants Sunday, while the 49ers lost 24-23 to Arizona at home.

The big story: Despite the struggles of the past two weeks, the Seahawks can stay in control of the NFC West with a win, which would assure them of ending the week with at least a one-game lead on Arizona and two on the 49ers. It would also send a strong signal that the losses of the past two weeks may be just signs of growing pains under Mike Macdonald and that things are still on the right track

Key matchup

Seahawks defense vs. themselves.

After a solid three-game start to the season, the Seahawks have looked too much like the defenses of the last few years in allowing a combined 71 points to the Giants and Lions, including seven TD-scoring drives of 70 yards or longer. The veterans on the Seahawks wouldn’t be human if a little “here we go again’’ thought started to creep in. But coaches and players have insisted since the loss to Detroit that the issues are mostly fixable, many simply because of lapses in communication.

“When you look at it, it’s just little things,’’ veteran defensive lineman Jarran Reed said. “It starts with communication. Just making sure the guys are in the right place and that just starts with talking before the snap, presnap keys.”

49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense includes lots of shifts and motions designed to try to confuse defenses, putting that much more urgency on Seattle to shore things up. Macdonald this week said the short week means having to streamline things. That could be good timing for the Seahawks to keep things simple.

Key players

Cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon and Tre Brown.

Without Woolen, the Seahawks will need to lean even more on Witherspoon and Brown. They may elevate veteran Artie Burns off the practice squad to serve as a third cornerback. Expect Shanahan to try to create some one-on-one matchups early to test the corners, especially Brown, who struggled against the Giants, committing a holding penalty and was beaten in man coverage by New York’s Darius Slayton for a 41-yard gain and a 30-yard TD.

Key stat

First-half scoring

The Seahawks have scored just one offensive touchdown in the first half in their last two games (they also scored a defensive TD last week) while allowing four. That’s also been a trend in their recent losing streak against the 49ers. In the four regular-season defeats to San Francisco the past two seasons, the Seahawks have been behind at halftime each time, outscored a combined 72-16. Those games, of course, were before Macdonald became coach. But for players who were there for those games, any early deficit could prove deflating.

Three other things to watch

How much will the Seahawks run the ball?

The week was dominated by questions about the Seahawks’ offensive game plan against the Giants as they had just seven carries by running backs Kenneth Walker III (five for 19 yards) and Zach Charbonnet (two for 11). Macdonald and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said that was a mistake and that they know the Seahawks must get more balance.

The Seahawks are passing on 67.39% of their plays, which leads the NFL.

“Got to get the ball to Ken more,’’ Grubb said Tuesday.

The 49ers have proved vulnerable to the run at times this season, allowing 4.7 per attempt, 21^st in the NFL. Walker is averaging 5.5 per attempt and has had no health setbacks since returning a week ago Monday against the Lions, presumably ready for a heavy workload against the 49ers if the Seahawks get him the ball.

Making do on the defensive front

The Seahawks will again be without Murphy and Nwosu. While it appears edge rushers Derick Hall and Boye Mafe may play, neither may be at full strength. Even without McCaffrey the 49ers will be a major challenge on offense. They rank second in the NFL in yards gained at 407.4 per game and eighth in rushing yards at 144.0 behind an offensive line still regarded as one of the better units in the NFL, particularly veteran left tackle Trent Williams, who is ranked second among all tackles this week for the season by Pro Football Focus.

The Seahawks will need big games from the likes of Leonard Williams, who appears healthier this week, Reed and Dre’Mont Jones to avoid the 49ers dominating the battle up front.

Can DK Metcalf hang on and rebound?

Metcalf is averaging a career-high 84.2 yards per game and a solid 15.0 yards per reception that is better than his career average of 14.4. He’s lost costly fumbles each of the past two weeks after not having a fumble all last season. And he’s often struggled against the 49ers, held to 84 yards on five catches in two games last season, being thrown out of the game in Santa Clara in the late going after getting in a fight with 49ers linebacker Fred Warner (Warner is listed with an ankle injury this week but was not on the game status report and expected to play). Metcalf will need to keep his emotions and the ball in control Thursday night. “I think DK knows all (the) things to do,’’ Grubb said this week. “He certainly does, and ball security does mean something to him. … You see it in practice right away that he’s really trying to focus on those things.”

Prediction

Seahawks 24, 49ers 21

As banged up as are the Seahawks, the 49ers also aren’t at full strength without McCaffrey. While the 49ers have looked like their old selves in blowouts of the Jets and Patriots, they’ve been mortal in their other three. Going on the road on a short week and coming off a stunning home loss to Arizona provides the Seahawks their best chance in three years to beat the 49ers.