NFL Week 7 betting breakdown: Predictions for every game

Dionne D’Amico, @1stLadyofVegas, Sportsmemo.com

Raiders (2-4) at Rams (1-4)

Time: 1:05 p.m., CBS

Line/total: Rams -7, 43½

Analysis: Try not to overthink this matchup. The Raiders and the Rams possess two of the lowest-scoring offenses in the NFL, with Los Angeles ranking 25th in scoring (18.8 points per game) and the Raiders ranking 27th (18.2 ppg). In a game that can go either way, scoring will be at a premium.

Pick: Rams 20, Raiders 16

Patriots (1-5) vs. Jaguars (1-5), at London

Time: 6:30 a.m., NFLN

Line/total: Jaguars -6½, 41½

Analysis: This is one of the toughest games on the board to handicap. Jacksonville will have an edge since it stayed in London after last week’s loss to the Bears and did not have to travel. There is also talk that Jaguars coach Doug Pederson is on the hot seat, which could further motivate Jacksonville. However, that’s just not enough for them to cover a spread this big.

Pick: Jaguars 24, Patriots 20

Seahawks (3-3) at Falcons (4-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Falcons -3, 51½

Analysis: These are teams heading in opposite directions. The Seahawks have dropped and failed to cover three in a row, while the Falcons have won their last three and covered their last two. Atlanta started winning at the same time quarterback Kirk Cousins’ confidence started building. The Falcons have covered four of the last five meetings with Seattle. There’s no reason this outcome will be any different.

Pick: Falcons 31, Seahawks 24

Titans (1-4) at Bills (4-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bills -9½, 40½

Analysis: The Titans are in real trouble here. Their only victory this season came against the struggling Dolphins, and now they must go into Highmark Stadium to face a Buffalo team returning home after nearly a month away. The Bills have exploded for 81 points in two home games this season, beating the Cardinals 34-28 in their season opener and crushing the Jaguars 47-10 in Week 3. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen will have his best performance yet here.

Pick: Bills 30, Titans 16

Bengals (2-4) at Browns (1-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Bengals -5½, 42

Analysis: In recent years, the home team has dominated this rivalry. Cleveland has won six straight over Cincinnati at home. But this season’s version of the Browns is the first in more than 10 years to average less than 16 points per game over its first six contests (15.8 ppg). Cleveland running back Nick Chubb is expected to be back, but I just don’t feel that’s enough to spark a fire on this offense. To make matters worse, on the defensive side of the ball, they rank dead last in the NFL in takeaways with one.

Pick: Bengals 24, Browns 16

Texans (5-1) at Packers (4-2)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Packers -3, 48½

Analysis: Two young and exciting quarterbacks who have their teams playing well square off in this matchup. Texans QB C.J. Stroud has the luxury of having running back Joe Mixon back, while Packers QB Jordan Love has Green Bay on a 4-1 run, straight-up and against the spread. When the Texans travel, their defense struggles, allowing 27, 34 and 21 points in their three worst outings this season.

Pick: Packers 28, Texans 24

Dolphins (2-3) at Colts (3-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Colts -3, 43½

Analysis: Dolphins fans might be excited about this matchup as they got their first straight-up victory since the opening week of the season in a 15-10 win over the Patriots, and their first cover since Christmas Eve 2023. Miami then had a bye week to rest before Sunday’s matchup with the Colts. Very quietly, Indianapolis has become money to sports bettors, covering four in a row and five of six this season. Colts QB Anthony Richardson is expected to be back under center, and he has enough firepower at his disposal to outscore the league’s 32nd-ranked scoring offense (12.0 ppg).

Pick: Colts 24, Dolphins 17

Lions (4-1) at Vikings (5-0)

Time: 10 a.m., Fox

Line/total: Vikings -2, 51

Analysis: These NFC North rivals are a combined 9-1 straight-up and ATS this season. But to say the Lions have had their way in this rivalry would be an understatement. Detroit has won the last three meetings and four of the last five, while covering seven straight ATS, including the last three at Minnesota. Both teams have been hit with injuries, making this a bit tougher to predict. Detroit’s confidence, knowing it has dominated its division rival, will be the difference.

Pick: Lions 26, Vikings 24

Eagles (3-2) at Giants (2-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/total: Eagles -3, 42½

Analysis: New York has covered six of the last nine meetings against its NFC East division rival Eagles. The Giants are coming off a 17-7 home loss to Cincinnati that was closer than the final score suggests. Even former New York running back Saquon Barkley in the backfield for Philadelphia, getting a chance to take a bite out of his old team, does not warrant laying 3 points with the visitor here. This game is going to be a close one.

Pick: Eagles 23, Giants 20

Panthers (1-5) at Commanders (4-2)

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/total: Commanders -9½, 51½

Analysis: The Commanders are the NFL’s most pleasant surprise thus far this season, sitting atop the competitive NFC East at 4-2. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is maturing very nicely with each passing week, and he should in no way be ashamed of last week’s 30-23 road loss to the Ravens. The defeat did break Washington’s four-game win and cover streak. But facing the NFC’s worst team in Carolina will get Washington back on track. This is a big number, but the Panthers’ five losses have been by an average of 22.8 points, and the Commanders have won and covered both home games this season.

Pick: Commanders 31, Panthers 21

Chiefs (5-0) at 49ers (3-3)

Time: 1:25 p.m., Fox

Line/total: 49ers -1, 47

Analysis: Say what you want about Kansas City. But the Chiefs find new and improved ways to win and cover week after week. They are on an 11-game win streak, going 10-1 against the number. They are money no matter what role the oddsmakers put them in. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding. But their defense, which has held opponents to 17.0 ppg, has excelled at stopping the rush, and it will be that run defense that I think will shine here. This is a stop unit that has limited running backs Alvin Kamara to 26 yards rushing, Derrick Henry to 46, Zack Moss to 34, Bijan Robinson to 31 and J.K. Dobbins to 32 in consecutive weeks. By the way, let’s not forget Kansas City has covered seven straight in the underdog role. Giving them points is a mistake.

Pick: Chiefs 28, 49ers 21

Jets (2-4) at Steelers (4-2)

Time: 5:20 p.m., NBC

Line/total: Jets -2, 39

Analysis: Be careful what you wish for. Sorry Jets fans, but you were pining for the return of quarterback Aaron Rodgers since the opening week of last season. Well, the 40-year-old has played in all six games this season, and the team is sitting in third place in the AFC East at 2-4 behind an anemic offense that’s tied for 23rd in the league in scoring with only 18.8 ppg. New York also has seven turnovers. Playing the Steelers at home is never easy, and making coach Mike Tomlin and company home underdogs will prove to be fatal, especially following last week’s 32-13 dismantling of the Raiders on the road.

Pick: Steelers 20, Jets 16

Ravens (4-2) at Buccaneers (4-2)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN, ABC

Line/total: Ravens -3½, 49

Analysis: Baltimore is starting to hit its stride, winning four straight while going 3-0-1 ATS. However, the line in this matchup bothers me. I don’t like laying 3½ points with the Ravens on the road, especially against a Buccaneers team that is playing very competitively. One thing for sure, with two of the top scoring offenses in the NFL, expect a lot of points here.

Pick: Ravens 27, Buccaneers 26

Chargers (3-2) at Cardinals (2-4)

Time: 6 p.m. Monday, ESPN+

Line/total: Chargers -2, 44

Analysis: Having already played against the Bills, Rams, Lions, Commanders, 49ers, and Packers, you can say the Cardinals have played a very tough schedule. The Chargers rank No. 1 in scoring defense, yielding just 13.2 ppg. But their offense is so bad (18.2 ppg), their defense won’t be able to compensate enough for a cover.

Pick: Chargers 22, Cardinals 21