Pick Six Previews: Expect Utah to take out some frustration on Arizona

27 Sep 2024, 19:03 by Brett Ciancia, Pick Six Previews · KSL.com

Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes

SALT LAKE CITY — Utah passed its first ranked test of the 2024 season by defeating then-No. 14 Oklahoma State 22-19 in Stillwater to officially kick off their Big 12 era.

Yes, Utah beat Baylor two weeks previous but that game was part of a previously scheduled nonconference series and will not impact the league standings.

In a battle of two of the sport's longest-tenured head coaches, Kyle Whittingham's defense outplayed Mike Gundy's offense, and the Utes suffocated Oklahoma State until the final six minutes.

Utah led 22-3 and was outgaining the Cowboys by some 300 yards, and even held 2023 Doak Walker Award running back Ollie Gordon to just 42 rushing yards. The defense completely shut down Gundy's passing attack to the point that he benched his starter, seventh-year Alan Bowman, for most of the second half.

Oklahoma State rattled off consecutive scoring drives in the closing minutes, but Utah fended off the late rally and clinched the program's second straight 4-0 start. The Utes aim to keep the Big 12 momentum rolling, and this time it is a familiar foe in Arizona who came over from the collapsing Pac-12 with Utah.

The Utes will have revenge on their minds as Arizona ran up the score in their matchup in November against a Utah roster that was decimated with injuries. Rice-Eccles Stadium will host its 86th consecutive sellout Saturday night (8:15 p.m. MDT, ESPN).

Game Grader

(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)

3-year average (2021-23): Utah 63.6 (12th of 70 Power Four) | Arizona 45.3 (51st)
2023 season: Utah 52.3 (35th) | Arizona 69.6 (14th)
2024 season: Utah 73.2 (9th) | Arizona 48.1 (42nd)

My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance that adjusts for opponent strength and is a key piece of my preseason and in-season evaluation.

In my annual season preview magazine Pick Six Previews, I selected Utah as my Big 12 champion and picked Arizona to finish fifth. Utah has met those high expectations with a perfect 4-0 record, two Power Four wins, three wins by double-digits, and the ranked win over Oklahoma State.

Arizona dropped 61 points in the opening shootout win over New Mexico, but has scored just 29 points since. That includes a lackluster 22-10 win over FCS Northern Arizona, and a 31-7 blowout loss to Kansas State two weeks ago before their bye week.

The Wildcats have fallen to No. 42 (of 70 Power Four) in the first release of 2024 Game Grader.

Arizona with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Arizona offense (2024): 2nd of 16 Big 12 (5th passing, 5th rushing)
Utah defense (2024): 1st of 16 Big 12 (4th passing, 3rd rushing)

This was quintessential Utah football on Saturday. Morgan Scalley's defense forced eight punts, eliminated the Doak Walker winner, and forced their seventh-year quarterback to be benched after an 8-of-22 start. The defense swarmed the ball, did not miss tackles, and took away the star players.

They get another tough test Saturday against one of the best quarterback-receiver duos in the nation. Arizona's Noah Fifita placed third in an elite quarterback conference last year, and exploded in the season opener with 422 passing yards — 304 of those yards went to Tetairoa McMillan who has established himself as a legit All-America candidate and projected first-rounder in next April's NFL draft.

Their offensive production looked a lot different against a top Big 12 contender as they were held to just 7 points against Kansas State. This is the clear strength vs. strength matchup of the game, and it is an advantage for Utah. Utah's is the more proven unit over a longer stretch of time.

Utah with the ball

(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)

Utah offense (2024): 13th of 16 Big 12 (13th passing, 7th rushing)
Arizona defense (2024): 14th of 16 Big 12 (15th passing, 13th rushing)

Cam Rising Watch unlocked a new feature last week — he went through all the pregame warmups as the starter but was still benched at kickoff. Whittingham said the staff made the decision because Rising's hand strength was not fully rehabbed and it was limiting his passes — "not enough velocity on the ball … just not able to spin it like he needs to and just didn't have that zip on the ball."

True freshman Isaac Wilson led another victory, this time passing for 207 and a touchdown. He did toss two picks, but settled down after the first quarter and eventually converted three third- and fourth-down conversions with his legs.

Micah Bernard rushed for 182 yards, versatile tight end Brant Kuithe caught a touchdown and ran one in from a Wildcat formation, and the offense rolled up 456 yards. Utah's ball control was remarkable, as they won the time of possession battle 43 minutes to 17.

The offense gets an easier assignment this week against one of the worst statistical defenses in the Big 12 so far. This will be the breakout game for Wilson. It should also be a huge day for receiver Dorian Singer playing against his former school, where he posted a 1,000+ yard season in 2022.

Arizona's defense gave up 445 rushing yards in their two FBS games so far and allowed Kansas State's mobile quarterback to control the game. It is a small sample size, but this does not resemble their strong 10-win team last season.

Game prediction

Until we actually see Rising start and play a full game, this is from the perspective of Wilson leading the team at quarterback. Even without their veteran, look for Wilson to post career highs and for Utah to take out some frustration for Arizona's big win last year.

Scalley's defense wins the matchup of top units.

Rice-Eccles Stadium has become one of the toughest places to play in America — especially at night. Utah is 62-10 as home favorites during the sellout streak and is currently riding a 33-2 run at home.

Utah 42 | Arizona 16

Pick Six Previews: Expect Utah to take out some frustration on Arizona

Game Grader

Arizona with the ball

Utah with the ball

Game prediction

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