Liberty vs. Lynx WNBA Finals matchups, predictions: Can New York finally win its first title?

It’s not right to frame the WNBA Finals as a meeting of the ingénue Liberty, seeking the franchise’s first title, and the formerly dynastic Minnesota Lynx, looking to hang a fifth banner.

Because it’s the Liberty who are loaded with prestige players and are installed as the heavy betting favorites after dominating the league for the best part of the past five months. Whereas the Lynx had to scratch their way from preseason afterthoughts into a clear contender.

And it’s overly simplistic to describe the head-to-head — which the Lynx notably controlled in 2024, three games to one, counting the Commissioner’s Cup final — as a matchup pitting the Liberty’s No. 1 offense against Minnesota’s No. 2 defense.

Because that shortchanges the fifth-ranked Lynx offense, capable of spreading the floor and pinging the ball around with the best of them (they led the WNBA in assists per game and 3-point shooting percentage).

It also too narrowly defines the Liberty, who are prone to brutal lulls on offense (see: their six-point third quarter in Game 3 of the semifinals against the Aces) and now are capable of playing some breathtaking defense (see: the fourth quarter of the Game 4 clincher).

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchups that will dictate the course of the Finals:

MVPs

Rarely does an individual matchup set up more clearly and more significantly than this: Breanna Stewart vs. Napheesa Collier.

They are both top-three MVP finishers (Collier was second, Stewart third). They play the same position (power forward). They share an alma mater (Collier was a freshman on Stewart’s fourth straight UConn title team). They are even business partners, having co-founded a glossy new 3-on-3 league debuting this offseason (Unrivaled).

Their roles are similar, too: all-world defensive anchors who fly around to “help” and block shots, as well as Swiss Army knives on offense, filling in scoring gaps from the post out to the 3-point line.

Based on most recent form, you’d give the 28-year-old Collier the upper hand (27.1 points and 9.6 rebounds per game in the playoffs, including games of 38 and 42 points, versus 20.0 and 8.2 for Stewart). But Stewart, 30, is a two-time Finals MVP for a reason and in no mood to pass torches.

Edge: Even

Point Guard

Neither Sabrina Ionescu nor Courtney Williams is a point guard in the classic sense. They are natural scorers and canny pick-and-roll operators who do the bulk of the ball-handling for their teams, especially in crunch time.

It’s a mismatch in terms of Q rating. Ionescu has the No. 1 pick pedigree, the Spike Lee daps and the CarMax commercials. Williams is on her fourth team in four years, having signed with Minnesota as a free agent.

But Williams can really play. She averaged 11.1 points and 5.5 assists during the regular season, and poured in 24 points in Tuesday’s semifinal winner-take-all Game 5 against the Sun. She’s also a long-armed defensive pest; Williams is likely to guard Ionescu, but not vice versa.

Ionescu has taken her game to another level, though. After averaging a career-high 18.2 points during the season, she’s at 20.7 in the postseason. There might not be a better guard in the world right now.

Edge: Liberty

Shooting

The Liberty were the WNBA’s highest-volume 3-point shooting team during the regular season, but the Lynx had a healthy edge in efficiency (38.0 percent to 34.9).

Beware of Bridget Carleton (44.4 percent), Kayla McBride (40.7) and even center Alanna Smith (39.8).

Leonie Fiebich, the rookie who recently entered the starting lineup, has emerged as the Liberty’s most reliable shooter: 13 of 22 (59.1 percent) in six playoff games after hitting 43.3 percent in the regular season.

Edge: Lynx

Rebounding

Watch the offensive boards as an area for the Liberty to exploit. The Lynx ranked next to last in the WNBA in defensive rebounding rate (68.2 percent), while the Liberty were the league’s most effective rebounding team overall (52.5 total rebound percentage).

This is where Liberty center Jonquel Jones (nine rebounds per game) can dominate.

Edge: Liberty

Depth

The Liberty are the only team bringing a future Hall of Famer off the bench (Courtney Vandersloot). They also have veterans Kayla Thornton and Kennedy Burke to influence games with their defense and energy.

The Lynx likely will go just seven deep, with trade deadline pickup Myisha Hines-Allen at forward and Natisha Hiedeman at guard.

Edge: Liberty

Coaching

Cheryl Reeve, fresh off steering Team USA to Olympic gold, is on the short list of WNBA coaching GOATs, and a fifth ring here — with a newly assembled starting five that plays beautifully cohesive ball — might clinch it.

Credit Sandy Brondello for getting the Liberty motivated by last year’s setback and playing with better chemistry this time around.

Edge: Lynx

Predictions

Jonathan Lehman: Liberty in 5

Bridget Reilly: Liberty in 5

Andrew Crane: Lynx in 5

Peter Botte: Liberty in 4