College football Week 11 predictions: Ole Miss vs. Georgia, more picks against the spread

Lane Kiffin has packed a lot into the past two decades. 

He was the son of the father (Monte) of the famed Tampa 2 defense; the assistant who worked with Pete Carroll, Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush; the 31-year-old hired by Al Davis to lead the Raiders; the coach who ditched Tennessee after one year; was fired by USC on an airport tarmac; who joined forces with Nick Saban to win one national championship; and was booted the week before another national title game. 

Kiffin, 49, is a social media troll and a traditional media favorite, a much-needed character in a sport of robots, a brilliant play-caller whose teams are as consistently entertaining as any him. 

But when a season-defining game arrives, the most unpredictable coach in the country spoils the ending. 

Kiffin is 1-11 in his career against top-five teams. He is 3-15 against top-10 teams. He is James Franklin with a sense of humor. 

Ole Miss entered this season No. 6 in the nation, its highest preseason ranking in 54 years. After steamrolling through their annual soft nonconference schedule, the Rebels stumbled at home against 15th-ranked Kentucky. Then, Ole Miss lost to LSU. 

If Kiffin is to make his first playoff appearance as a head coach, Ole Miss must now defeat Georgia. It was the same situation the Rebels faced last year, when the Bulldogs ran away with a 52-17 victory. 

The gap between the teams has closed this year, because of Carson Beck’s regression and a Georgia defense that hasn’t lived up to its reputation, but the best team of the decade remains the safest bet in the sport. The team that demolished Clemson and won at No. 1 Texas would be undefeated if not for “a miracle half when Michael Vick showed up,” Kiffin admitted this week, referring to Alabama’s Jalen Milroe. 

It has been four years since Georgia (-2.5, -110 BetMGM) has lost to any team besides Alabama. Eventually, that will change. 

But are you really willing to bet on one of the sport’s worst big game coaches to be the one to do it? 

Purdue (+37.5) over OHIO STATE

The Buckeyes are currently the betting favorite to win the national championship. Should it happen, Chip Kelly and Will Howard won’t be the biggest reasons why. The Buckeyes haven’t topped 38 points in a Big Ten game this season. 

GEORGIA TECH (+11.5 ) over Miami

The Hurricanes are like a political ad, both scary and persuasive. But if you fact-check, you’ll find that Miami isn’t like other unbeatens, barely surviving four of its past five games due to its below average defense. 

Florida (+21.5) over TEXAS

Here’s to holding out hope that DJ Lagway is able to play. If not, here’s to also knowing that Texas’ star-studded quarterback room hasn’t matched its billing, leading the Longhorns to fewer than 30 points per game against Power Four opponents. 

VIRGINIA TECH (+6.5) over Clemson

We should’ve seen the banana peel coming. It has been four years since Clemson has finished in the top 10. After being exposed by Louisville, the Tigers — who have the ACC’s ninth-ranked defense — reminded us that they have not beaten any team with a winning conference record. 

INDIANA (-14.5) over Michigan

Nothing to see here, just the defending champs getting two touchdowns against a team it has lost to just twice since Mickey Mantle retired and beat by 45 last year. The Hoosiers (9-0) boast the best scoring margin in the nation (plus-27.8). 

Colorado (-3.5) over TEXAS TECH

Deion Sanders will be a fixture on your screen again. The Big 12 is suddenly up for grabs, and the Buffaloes control their path to the league title game. Receiver Travis Hunter’s Heisman moment could come against the nation’s 124th-ranked pass defense. 

MISSOURI (+2.5) over Oklahoma

Before the books factored in that the Tigers would play backup quarterback Drew Pyne — who went 8-2 as Notre Dame’s starter in 2022, including a 4-1 mark against ranked teams — the Sooners were listed as underdogs for the sixth time this season. Welcome to the SEC. You are now Arkansas. 

OREGON (-25.5) over Maryland

Maryland is 0-9 against top-10 teams under Mike Locksley, losing by an average of 28 points per game. Is there hope this time? Well, a recent gathering of Maryland alumni centered on whether the Terrapins would make the playoff in the next 50 years. No one said yes. 

Florida State (+25.5) over NOTRE DAME

Let’s call this the “Austin Powers,” for those who “also like to live dangerously” by staying on 5 in blackjack. Much help is needed. 

Alabama (-3) over LSU

The Tigers have no answer to slow Jalen Milroe, who ran for 155 yards and four touchdowns last year. Instead of countering with Jayden Daniels, Brian Kelly now must rely on Garrett Nussmeier, who has thrown five interceptions with a sub-47 completion percentage, in two games against ranked SEC opponents. 

Mississippi State (+23.5) over TENNESSEE

There have been 17 double-digit underdogs in SEC play. All but two covered the spread. The Volunteers haven’t topped 28 points in league play. The Bulldogs are good for at least five.

Washington (+13.5) over PENN STATE

The Huskies have been horrific on the road, but their underrated defense — which most recently held Indiana to a season low in scoring and USC to its second-lowest output — could keep it close against the latest iteration of the Nittany Lions’ underwhelming attack. 

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BOISE STATE (-24.5) over Nevada

The No. 12 Broncos own their best ranking in 13 years and have won their home games by an average of nearly 32 points. Ashton Jeanty needs at least another 200 on the ground to keep his Heisman hopes alive. 

Byu (-4) over UTAH

There is no reason to throw out the records in this rivalry game. Rock bottom has arrived for the Utes — the Big 12 preseason favorite — who have failed to score 20 points during their four-game losing streak. The absence of Cam Rising sets up the undefeated Cougars for their first win in Salt Lake City since 2006. 

BEST BETS: Georgia, Colorado, Mississippi State. 

SEASON: 79-70-1 (10-19-1). 

2014-23 RECORD: 1,272-1,206-30.