Commanders’ Brian Robinson Jr. can carry fantasy football lineups in Week 4

It isn’t always the star who can put your fantasy team over the top. Sometimes it is the dull player, the one who doesn’t come with pom-poms, a player who is somewhat overlooked, who hasn’t had his “look at me” moment yet.

For whatever the Commanders are or will become as a team, they have a roster with some degree of star power. And not unlike a Broadway production, the more well-rounded the cast, the better the play.

Many fantasy managers were eager to get their claws in Jayden Daniels on draft day. Terry McLaurin has enjoyed some past fantasy success despite playing with a string of quarterbacks that would make even Steve Smith Sr. laugh.

Veteran tight end Zach Ertz brings name recognition (and a bottle of Geritol). Then, there is splashy free-agent addition Austin Ekeler to bolster an off-Broadway-level backfield.

Look, Daniels has mostly delivered, and he is an every-week fantasy starter and last week renewed some hope for McLaurin. But Ertz has produced one really good game, only he spread it out over three weeks to no one’s benefit. Yet somehow, he is TE9 on the season. 

And Ekeler … well that brings us to our favorite pick of the week, Brian Robinson Jr.

First, Ekeler hasn’t been getting much work, as many feared. Of the Commanders’ 97 rush attempts, Ekeler has just 13 (13.4 percent). Robinson, on the other hand, has almost half (46.4).

Ekeler has a slight edge in the passing game use and better production (Robinson eight targets, five catches, 56 yards; Ekeler nine catches, nine targets, 121 yards).

However, that all came before Ekeler got a concussion last week. He already has been ruled out for Sunday against the Cardinals. So who gets Ekeler’s work? 

Jeremy McNichols might absorb a chunk of Ekeler’s passing game duties. He and Nick Bellore might combine to eat up some of Ekeler’s rushing touches, but probably not all of them.

Because we expect Robinson to get a larger share of the workload himself. With Ekeler getting an average of roughly seven touches per game, we imagine at least two to three of those will go to Robinson, maybe more.

Plus, Ekeler has six red-zone rushes. Imagine most or all of the extra RB attempts there will go to Robinson.

Oh, you have a question. What about Daniels? Well, Daniels is going to get his. But it doesn’t seem wise for Washington to increase his rushing volume. If anything, the Commanders would prefer him to run less. 

That’s not going to happen, at least not until he proves he can consistently produce with his arm, but it would be enough of a deterrent that the Commanders don’t want to increase his exposure to injury by increasing his rushing workload. 

Thus, Robinson & Co. absorb the Ekeler workload, with Daniels staying virtually the same. At least, that’s the logic we’re going with. 

Then let’s add the fact that they are playing the Cardinals. This game could be a fun shoot-out. This invokes Fantasy Rule 101: The more real-life points scored, the better the chance one of your players in that game will score fantasy points.

Plus, the Cardinals defense ranks 23rd against opposing fantasy RBs, allowing 3.2 more in PPR to opposing RBs per week than the league average.

Stars weren’t stars until they had their big breakout. Maybe this can be Robinson’s. He doesn’t need to carry the day, all he has to do is be a bargain play in DFS contests or better than your available Flex options. Neither of those are a hard bar to clear. 

Big weeks

Geno Smith QB, Seahawks, at Lions (FanDuel $7,300/DraftKings $5,800)

The past two times Smith has played at Detroit, he scored 31.7 fantasy points in Week 4 of 2022, then 23.1 in Week 2 last season. Seattle had no need to throw last week, but Smith was QB7 the first two weeks.

Rachaad White RB, Buccaneers, vs. Eagles (FD $6,200/DK $6,000)

You would think his lack of production is eventually going to cost him his job, but that won’t be this week. Impressive rookie Bucky Irving suffered a late-week hamstring injury. Even if Irving plays, expect White to get much more action.

Carson Steele RB, Chiefs, at Chargers (FD $5,800/DK $5,500)

Don’t worry about lack of fantasy production in his first call to duty last week. The volume was there, and whoever gets volume in the K.C. run game has fantasy value.

Xavier Legette WR, Carolina, vs. Bengals (FD $5,200/DK $4,800)

Who would have thought this two weeks ago: With Diontae Johnson iffy with a groin issue and Adam Thielen out, we actually have some optimism regarding rookie Legette. Thanks, Andy Dalton!

Small weaks

Tyler Huntley QB, Dolphins, vs. Titans (FD $6,000/DK $5,500)

Look, we feel better about this than we would have Skylar Thompson or, God forbid, Tim Boyle. But we want to see him deliver first before we consider him better than anything other than damage control.

Rhamondre Stevenson RB, Patriots, vs. 49ers (FD $6,800/DK $6,200)

We saw him get forgotten when the Pats fell behind last week. That happens again, against a talented and angry 49ers squad.

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J.K. Dobbins RB, Chargers, vs. Chiefs (FD $7,000/DK $6,300)

Don’t be nervous, Dobbins is going to remain a huge late-round draft value. But against a tough Chiefs run and possibly without QB Justin Herbert, this is a good week to play your higher picks instead.

D’Andre Swift RB, Bears, vs. Rams (FD $5,700/DK $5,500)

If you were overly optimistic and drafted him, then you played him, and you continue to play him … stop. Just stop. This guy is better suited for waivers than he is a starting fantasy lineup.