Yankees vs. Royals Game 1 prediction: ALDS picks, odds, best bets

· New York Post

It’s wild to think that a year ago the Royals finished with 106 losses in the juxtaposition of them now challenging the top-seeded Yankees in their first ALDS trip since 2015.

I’ll admit I underestimated Kansas City throughout the year.

What makes the Royals dangerous is that aside from the mighty Bobby Witt Jr., you really can’t prepare for this quietly adaptable offense while the pitching depth shows up when it counts.

Kansas City’s 2-0 sweep of the Orioles in the AL Wild Card Series was a starting pitching clinic followed by textbook bullpen management — on both sides.

The difference was who could jump ahead first and protect the lead.

The Yankees are an upgrade over the O’s in power hitting, but not by a vast margin.

Michael Wacha will be the first of this rotation to face the game’s top two contact hitters in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto; his Statcast metrics reveal he’s fit for the task.

Wacha suppressed hard-hit balls (95 mph exit velocity or above) to a 32.5 rate, which boosted him into the top-eight percentile of pitchers.

Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha pitches against the Nationals during a regular season game. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

The long-tenured journeyman did not start against the Yankees in his first season as a Royal.

He has pitched moderately in Yankee Stadium with a 3.38 in 32²/₃ innings there throughout his career.

Gerrit Cole didn’t see the Royals this year, either.

He’s 4-1 and owns a 2.77 ERA in 52 innings against them, but even numbers aside, every year that passes on the reigning AL Cy Young winner’s $324 million contract is an hourglass on proving himself in the playoffs.

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His velocity took some regression across the board in 2024, however he enters the playoffs with momentum after securing two wins in two starts for a 0.57 ERA, including a complete-game performance.

As aggressive as this Yankees lineup can be, it’s proved it can get hoodwinked by hot pitching through rough patches this year.

With Wacha and Cole projecting to joust long enough, this rested Royals bullpen that posted a No. 4 overall 3.76 FIP can continue producing soccer scores.

The play: Yankees-Royals Game 1, Under 7.5 (FanDuel, +100).

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.