NFL Week 6 player props: Picks for Bengals vs. Jaguars, Falcons vs. Panthers, more

· New York Post

We’re onto Week 6 of the NFL season and the Sunday slate is full of player prop betting value.

I went 2-1 on my picks last week to bring me to 10-2 for the season. Overall, I’m 42-28 on player props this year for +15.99 units of profit.

All of my picks are tracked in the Action Network app at Wayne_Bets.

Best bets: Week 6 NFL player props

Rome Odunze longest reception over 19.5 yards (-110, FanDuel)

Jaguars vs. Bears, 9:30 a.m. ET (London)

We’re on the precipice of a significant breakout from Odunze, the Bears’ prized rookie wide receiver, and I believe this week could provide the perfect opportunity.

The Jaguars rank last against the pass by DVOA, and I’m expecting a solid outing from Caleb Williams and the Bears’ passing offense overseas.

Odunze has a 15.3-yard average depth of target, which ranks fourth out of 64 wide receivers with 20-plus targets. That lines up perfectly with Williams continuing to improve as a deep-ball passer; the rookie quarterback connected on 3-of-4 deep passes last week after struggling on those throws through the first month of the season.

The Jaguars rank last in DVOA against deep passes and have allowed receptions of at least 20 yards to multiple receivers in every game this season.

Things are aligning for a breakout game this week from Rome Odunze. Getty Images

David Montgomery 60+ rushing yards and anytime touchdown (+205, Caesars)

Lions vs. Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET

Coming off a bye, the Lions have an excellent opportunity to establish their run game against the Cowboys, who have the worst run defense in the NFL by EPA.

Detroit has the best offensive line in the league by adjusted line yards, and the Cowboys rank 31st in that metric and 30th in run-stop win rate.

Montgomery’s rushing attempts line is priced at 14.5 for this game, which indicates he’ll have plenty of volume to hit 60 rushing yards. He has 60-plus rushing yards in 10 of 12 games as a Lion when Jahmyr Gibbs is active and Montgomery sees at least 14 attempts.

Montgomery has also scored a touchdown in 17 of 21 games since joining the Lions, so adding the touchdown prop to get to +205 odds is a no-brainer.

David Montgomery should see plenty of opportunities against the Cowboys. Getty Images

Diontae Johnson over 59.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings)

Falcons vs. Panthers, 4:25 p.m. ET

After a quiet outing last week with just three catches for 23 yards against an elite Bears pass defense, Johnson gets a favorable matchup against Atlanta, giving us a tremendous buy-low opportunity.

The Falcons have allowed seven wide receivers to clear this yardage mark in just five games this season. 

Since Andy Dalton took over as the starter, Johnson ranks among the NFL’s top-12 quarterbacks in target share. He should see plenty of volume against an Atlanta pass defense that ranks 22nd by DVOA and 28th in pass-rush win rate.

Betting on the NFL?

Carolina is as much as a 6.5-point home underdog in this game, so in a trailing game script, expect plenty of opportunities for Johnson through the air. 

(Keep in mind that lines move throughout the week, sometimes drastically, so if you need help on whether numbers are still playable, hit me up on X at @wayne_sports_.)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.