MLB Wild Card Game 2 best bets: Tigers-Astros, Royals-Orioles, Braves-Padres

The 2024 MLB Wild Card round is off to quite a start, with three underdogs winning Game 1 on the road. 

San Diego was the only favorite to take care of business at home, with a 4-0 shutout over the Braves.

With each team back in action Wednesday, we’ve put together our best bets for three games on the card.

Tigers vs. Astros odds, prediction

There was no doubt that Tigers ace Tarik Skubal would get the ball in Game 1. The only question is what will Detroit do for the remainder of the series.

Instead of pitching a traditional starter, Tigers manager A.J. Hinch is opting to hand the ball to Tyler Holton, a reliever, who went 7-2 on the year with eight saves and a 2.19 ERA.

This is a fascinating decision by Hinch that’s just wacky enough that it might work against the Astros.

Holton came on in relief Tuesday, retiring the only batter he faced. He’s struck out 77 hitters in 94 1/3 innings pitched and has yet to surrender a run in 4 ⅓ innings against the Astros this season.

The Tigers have one of the best bullpens in baseball, ranking fifth in ERA (3.55). To counter Holton, the Astros will start Hunter Brown, who went 11-9 with a 3.49 ERA and a solid 3.58 FIP. 

Runs are always at a premium during the postseason, and given the quality of pitchers both teams can send to the mound, there’s a ton of value in this game staying under 7.5 runs.

Best bet: Tigers-Astros under 7.5 runs (-110, FanDuel)

Royals vs. Orioles odds, prediction

The Baltimore Orioles knew they needed to bolster their pitching staff before the trade deadline, so they went out and got Zach Eflin from the Rays. 

Eflin was just 5-7 with a 4.09 ERA with Tampa Bay, but since joining the Orioles he’s 5-2 with a 2.60 ERA. 

The right-hander could be one of those late bloomers because it wasn’t until his eighth year (2023) in the majors that he had his best season (16-8, 3.50 ERA).

As good as Eflin has been recently, the Royals should have the better pitcher on the mound with Seth Lugo. 

Lugo went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA and is in the discussion for the Cy Young Award. His 3.25 FIP points to only a slight regression, and he’s undervalued as a +140 underdog.

While I’m aware that Lugo didn’t pitch particularly well (four runs on nine hits in 5 ⅓ innings) in his lone outing against the Orioles, Eflin hasn’t exactly been a lockdown starter in his last two appearances when facing the Royals.

Eflin allowed 11 runs (10 earned) on 14 hits in eight innings of work. 

If both pitchers equally struggle in Game 2, the Royals would be a sensible option for the first five innings as a half-run underdog.

Best bet: Royals F5 (+0.5) run line (-120, FanDuel)

Braves vs. Padres odds, predictions

The Braves exhausted their pitching options Monday in a doubleheader against the Mets just to get to the playoffs. 

They’re already without the NL Cy Young frontrunner, Chris Sale, in this round, and now their backs are against the wall against the San Diego Padres.

Sale’s absence in this series is massive because the Padres have a .239 /.310 /.380 line against left-handers vs. .272 /.330 /.434 against righties.

Thus, Atlanta could’ve potentially thrown two quality lefthanded starters against the Padres with Sale and Max Fried.

Fried will get the nod in Game 2, and while this hasn’t necessarily been his best year at 11-10, his 3.25 ERA is more than respectable, along with a 3.33 FIP.

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He’ll be up against Joe Musgrove for San Diego, who made only 19 starts after missing some time with an elbow injury.

Musgrove can be a nightmare for opposing hitters given his six-pitch arsenal that includes a fastball (24.6%), curveball (22.5%), cutter (20.4.%), slider (20.3%), changeup (8.7%) and sinker (4.4%).

He also pitched well on the big stage with the Padres during the 2022 playoffs, allowing six runs in 18 2/3 innings of work (2.89 ERA).

This is another game where both teams could struggle to score runs, and I look to play the total under seven runs before that number is no longer available.

Best bet: Brave-Padres under seven runs (-125, BetMGM)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.