NFL predictions, odds: Why long-shot Broncos can make a postseason run

Don’t look now, but the Denver Broncos have won three games in a row. 

Rookie quarterback Bo Nix is finding his footing in the NFL, and Vance Joseph’s defense has been terrorizing opposing quarterbacks. 

Despite that, we can find Denver at nearly 2/1 odds to make the playoffs.

The sportsbooks are not buying into this surging Broncos squad and I believe that sets up value on their price to make the postseason.

The Broncos are the focus of my column this week on the NFL futures betting markets, where odds can change quickly, providing opportunities to find value on the board.

Sean Payton never wanted to coach Russell Wilson, and that much was painfully evident last season as the coach and quarterback never got on the same page.

However, Payton handpicked Nix to run his team, and the former Oregon Duck is coming off his best game as a pro. 

Nix completed 19-of-27 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders, and he should have had a third score if not for a drop by rookie wideout Troy Franklin on what would have been a 45-yard touchdown strike.

Perhaps most importantly, Nix hasn’t made many mistakes.

Over the last four weeks, he has the third-lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL.

With Nix emerging as a real passing threat, defenses haven’t been able to load the box as frequently, and Denver’s run game is finding its legs.

As a result, Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin both rank in the top four in the league in missed tackles forced per attempt this season, per Pro Football Focus.

That’s more than enough to find success with how well Denver’s defense is playing.

The Broncos have the third-best defense in the NFL by EPA/play, and Vance Joseph has been in his bag this season.

Denver ranks second in the NFL with a 40.1% blitz rate, and it runs more Cover 0 and Cover 1 out of man coverage than just about any team in the league.

Joseph trusts his defensive backs to hold up in one-on-one settings while letting loose with creative blitz packages to keep quarterbacks on their toes.

It’s especially effective thanks to the brilliant play of cornerback Patrick Surtain II, whose Defensive Player of the Year stock (FanDuel’s fourth-shortest odds at 11/1) is quickly rising.

Finally, the Broncos rank second in the NFL in special teams DVOA.

Wil Lutz has made 92.3% of his field goals, and Ben Kotwica has his unit playing complementary football, providing a significant boost to the offense and defense.

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The Broncos’ upcoming schedule also seems ripe for picking up more wins.

Home games against the Chargers and Panthers in the near future are winnable, and a road game against the Saints takes on a different tenor if Derek Carr’s injury is long term. 

FTN Fantasy gives Denver a 47.8% chance of making the playoffs, and the +185 price tag on Caesars carries an implied probability of about 35%.

That’s a significant gap that’s worth buying into. 

With Payton at the helm, Nix improving by the week and Denver’s defense playing as well as any in the league, buy into the Broncos making the postseason this year (+185, Caesars).

BET: Broncos to make postseason (+185, Caesars)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Jacob Wayne handicaps college football and the NFL for the New York Post. He’s up 84.5 units across the two sports with a 6.27% ROI.