NFL Week 6 predictions: Picks against the spread for every game

While the Jets are heading into their Monday night game at MetLife Stadium with a new coach, the Giants could be in the early stages of a revival with their current one. 

It’s not just that Brian Daboll’s team pulled off a 29-20 upset last Sunday at Seattle as seven-point underdogs on the closing line, it’s how they did it — and with whom. 

The Giants entered at 1-3 and had scored six, 18, 21 and 15 points their first four games. Rookie Malik Nabers, who had led the team in receiving yards in each game, sat out with a concussion. And running back Devin Singletary, the top rusher through the first quarter of the season, missed the game with a groin injury. 

Then the game started and things got worse. Daniel Jones fumbled for a loss of 15 yards back to the 5 on the Giants’ first offensive snap. They would take the ball all the way down the field, but on the 16th play of the drive, Eric Gray fumbled at the goal line (or over it?), and Rayshawn Jenkins returned the ball 101 yards for a touchdown. 

But that would not turn out to be a knockout blow. Far from it. Daboll not only got by with the talent he had, he unlocked a new weapon in rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. The 5-foot-11, 210-pounder from Purdue darted and plowed his way through the Seattle defense for 129 yards on 18 carries. 

This opened up things downfield for Jones. Not reliant on Nabers, Jones connected with Darius Slayton eight times for 122 yards and also found Wan’Dale Robinson six times and rookie tight end Theo Johnson five. 

The contributions came from everywhere in the win, which was punctuated by Isaiah Simmons’ block of a potential tying field goal that was returned 60 yards for a touchdown by Bryce Ford-Wheaton. The defense stepped up with seven sacks of Geno Smith. The Giants had a 37:22 to 22:38 advantage in time of possession and were charged with just two penalties. 

So now Cincinnati arrives at 1-4 for the Sunday night spotlight game. Joe Burrow is getting back in sync with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and the Bengals are averaging 32.5 ppg in their past four. Unfortunately, they are allowing 32.25 ppg in those games, and their lone win of the season was against last-place Carolina. 

Nabers’ expected return would give Daboll the means to start taking his offense to the next level. And the underdog Giants should be able to take down a high-profile-yet-flawed opponent. 

The pick: Giants +3.5. 

Chicago Bears (-2.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)

The biggest potential edge for the Jaguars could be that they play in England every season and are more used to the travel routine. Bears QB Caleb Williams is a rookie, though, and everything’s new for him, anyway. Chicago is allowing just 17 ppg, making this number feel a little light. 

Washington Commanders (+6.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

Despite a four-game winning streak in which they are averaging 33.75 ppg, the Commanders are still catching nearly a touchdown in Baltimore. The Ravens gave up 38 points to the Bengals and have yielded at least 20 points in all but one game. They crushed the Bills at home two weeks ago, but Jayden Daniels isn’t giving me any reason to pick against him. 

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-5) over Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals have traveled pretty well thus far, going 2-0 ATS with a cover at the Bills and a win last week at the 49ers. Just figuring the first Lambeau semi-chill of the season (real feel 49 degrees with some rain) will play to the Packers’ favor, and Jordan Love will start to amp it up in his third game back from his knee injury. 

Houston Texans (-7) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The Texans will be without WR Nico Collins (hamstring), who already has 567 yards and three touchdown receptions. This would give Stefon Diggs a chance to get more involved against a familiar former AFC East foe. Drake Maye makes his first start for the Patriots. He might do better than the three, 13 and 10 points they’ve scored the past three weeks, but how much? 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Would have liked the Bucs better as an underdog, which they were before Derek Carr got injured Monday night. Big rest advantage for Baker Mayfield’s side, which played last Thursday. And a healthy Vita Vea should make life difficult for first-time Saints starting QB Spencer Rattler. 

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-8.5) over Cleveland Browns

A larger number than I’d like to give, but not unreasonable with the Eagles coming off a bye and expected to get WRs A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith back against the injury-riddled Browns. Eagles defense should get after Deshaun Watson. 

Colts (+2.5) over TITANS

Colts QB Anthony Richardson is expected back from an oblique injury, and Will Levis returned to Titans practice after a shoulder issue, so a potential battle of the backups likely will be avoided. The line moved 3.5 points from Colts -1. The new number makes me want to back the Colts even more.

DENVER BRONCOS (+3) over Los Angeles Chargers

Happy to take the points at home with the Broncos against a Chargers offense that has scored just 10 points in each of the past two weeks. Justin Herbert has not thrown for more than 179 yards in any game, and the Vance Joseph-Patrick Surtain II defense won’t make it any easier for him. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) over LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

The Raiders have given up 36 points to the Panthers and 34 to the Broncos in losses that sandwiched a victory over the depleted Browns. Though I don’t expect Justin Fields to reach those levels, the Steelers are healthy and will be a bit ornery after back-to-back losses. 

CAROLINA PANTHERS (+6) over Atlanta Falcons

Though the Andy Dalton Express has gone off the tracks as his passing yardage totals have dropped from 319 to 220 to 136, I’d still like to be on his side against a Falcons team that takes it down to the final play in many games. 

Detroit Lions (-3) over DALLAS COWBOYS

The Lions return to the scene of last December’s disputed 20-19 loss, which was decided by a disallowed 2-point conversion. Though the Cowboys got out of Pittsburgh with a win, Jared Goff’s offense is better equipped to exploit the absences of DeMarcus Lawrence and likely Micah Parsons than the Steelers were. 

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Monday

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) over NEW YORK JETS

A struggling team can get a boost from an in-season coaching change. Antonio Pierce’s Raiders beat the Giants, 30-6, last November. In 2022, Jeff Saturday came off the couch to lead the Colts to a victory over the Raiders. Could that happen with Robet Saleh’s replacement, Jeff Ulbrich? Sure, and if it does, the Jets will be in first place in the AFC East and back on track. 

The only problem is that the Bills are on the other side, and they will be arriving in ill humor off consecutive losses. We’ll see how much of the problem Saleh actually was. 

Best bets: Giants, Bears, Broncos
Lock of the week: Giants (Locks 2-3 in 2024)
Last week: 6-8 overall, 1-2 Best Bets
Thursday: 49ers (W)