MLB bullpens appear to be reaching a breaking point

CLEVELAND – Walker Buehler threw four shutout innings for the Dodgers on Wednesday in NLCS Game 3 and it was hailed as if he had climbed the Mount Everest of pitching.

Matt Boyd provided five one-run innings for the Guardians on Thursday in ALCS Game 3 and I was sure I was going to show up for Game 4 and out near Progressive Field Gate C the lefty would have a statue right next to the one of Bob Feller.

Of course, everything is by comparison, and in Games 1 and 2, Cleveland starters Alex Cobb and Tanner Bibee had mustered four combined innings and six runs.

And through 34 postseason games reached Thursday, relievers had provided more innings this October (301 2-3) than starters (296 2-3). Twelve of the 68 starts were two innings or less, reflecting both openers and quick hooks. Just one, by Baltimore’s Corbin Burnes, reached the eighth inning and another seven completed seven innings.

I do wonder if we are beginning to see the withering impact on bullpens of this trend as relievers are being taxed and overexposed to hitters like never before. There were, for example, already 14 blown saves in these playoffs, two more than any other non-2020 (when the postseason had 16 teams) postseason. Dynamic closers in Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase, Houston’s Josh Hader and Milwaukee’s Devin Williams have blown saves, as has Edwin Diaz, Philadelphia’s Carlos Estevez and the meteor of the moment, Luke Weaver.

Fifty-two minutes apart Thursday night in ALCS Game 3, Clase blew his first save since May 19 and Weaver his first ever in a game that ended with Cleveland winning 7-5 in 10 innings and both teams knowing they have fatigued pens not even midway if this series goes seven games.

We have been heading here for years via the metric revolution. It became understood that all pitchers should throw it harder, spin it more and max out on every pitch. That has led to both more injuries and shorter starts. The shorter starts are due to not holding back anything pitch to pitch for a marathon. And why hold back? Many starters these days are not allowed to go around a lineup more than twice —sometimes once this time of year. 

The domino effect is relievers are in the game more. It does suffocate offense because seeing so many different high-octane arms at-bat to at-bat does that. But, again, more pitching injuries come from the grip-it and rip-it philosophy. And it just becomes a numbers game of using so many arms — how many are actually qualified? In September, with rosters expanded to allow 14 pitchers, there were still multiple times that Aaron Boone mentioned being short in the bullpen.

By the time the postseason rolled around, the Tigers were trying to win with basically one starter, likely AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. The Mets with Kodai Senga and the Guardians with Cobb were trying to rehab and stretch out an injury-recover starter in October. The Dodgers basically have a pitching staff on the IL.

The Guardians had two different bullpens. They have four relievers who have appeared in the most games (regular plus postseason) this year in Hunter Gaddis (84 games), Tim Herrin (82), Cade Smith (81) and Clase (79) combined with fresh arms brought up late in Joey Cantillo, Eric Sabrowski and Andrew Walters. Clase allowed five earned runs and two homers in 74 1-3 regular-season innings and now six earned runs and three homers in six postseason innings. Clase surrendered as many homers in three minutes Thursday night to Judge and Giancarlo Stanton back-to-back as he did in six regular-season months.

The Yanks have had a lot of off-days since the regular season ended. Still, Clay Holmes and Weaver had appeared in all seven Yankees playoff games. In the seventh, Weaver allowed a two-out ninth-inning homer to Jhonkensy Noel to tie the score and Holmes a two-run 10th-inning homer to David Fry for the Guardian win.

Part of the success of relievers is they are at least a bit of a mystery to hitters, who see them so infrequently. But most relievers mainly use only two pitches so see it more and it becomes demystifying. Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez (who homered off Weaver in Game 2) and Lane Thomas had faced Weaver in each of the first three ALCS games. Weaver got ahead of Thomas 0-2 with two outs in the ninth and couldn’t put him away – Thomas hit a full-count double off the center-field wall. Noel then hit his tying homer.

Since 2019, hitters who see a reliever for a third time in the postseason have a slashline of .275/.340/.483 with 18 homers in 426 plate appearances (thanks to MLB Network research) — or basically hitters are being turned into what Fernando Tatis Jr. was during the regular season: .276/.340/.492 with 21 homers in 438 plate appearances.

The trajectory we have been heading is pretty clear. Starters worked 54.7 percent of postseason innings in 2022, 51.9 last year and 49.6 percent so far this year compared to 58.8 in the regular season. At the end of a long season, we are now asking more of the guys trained to give less.

Are we seeing a breaking point?