Unheralded LCS Players: Guardians Shortstop Brayan Rocchio

Baseball’s final four League Championship Series teams boast some of the game’s biggest stars. From the two likely league MVPs, the Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani and Yankees’ Aaron Judge, to other greats like Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez, Gerrit Cole, Francisco Lindor and Freddie Freeman, it’s wall-to-wall greats. But clubs can’t still be playing this deep into October without contributions throughout the roster. Yesterday (Dodgers’ UT Enrique Hernandez) and today, I’ve turned my focus to an unheralded performer in each series.

Guardians’ shortstop Brayan Rocchio has become very adept at flying under the radar. For those who say that he was never a particularly high-profile prospect, I submit that he was on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list three consecutive times, prior to the 2022, 2023 and 2024 seasons. For those who say he was a can’t miss type, I question you - really? Lots of players on the bottom half of Baseball America’s list (Rocchio ranked No. 66, 70 and 80 in those three seasons) don’t become quality MLB regulars and some never truly get a foothold in the big leagues.

I too create a list of top minor league position player prospects each season, based solely on statistical performance relative to league and level, adjusted for age. I don’t take the rankings too seriously, as sometimes sample sizes at individual levels can be quite small. I also don’t make positional adjustments, which can hurt middle-of-the-field, defense-first players like Rocchio. Bottom line, I look at my rankings as a master follow list, a starting point from which more traditional analysis can be undertaken.

But let’s look at how Rocchio fared on my list. He qualified three times, in 2021, 2022 and 2023. In the final two years, he was an age-only qualifier, coming at No. 167 and 235, where glove-only shortstops sometimes land. But in 2021, he ranked all the way up at No. 34. That’s an eyecatcher.

That year, at age 20, in an admittedly small 203 Double-A plate appearance sample, Rocchio unfurled a .293-.360-.505 line. Over 40% of his hits - against much older pitching - went for extra bases, and he managed to hit six homers. For a frame of reference, Jimmy Rollins played nearly a full season in that same Double-A Eastern League at the same age and hit .273-.336-.404 with 11 homers in 598 plate appearances. I’m not saying that Rocchio has Rollins-level overall potential, but they’re in the same universe. Rollins had superior speed, but their all-around defensive skill sets are comparable (Rocchio might have better range and arm strength, but Rollins’ arm accuracy was peerless) and their speed-independent hit tools are close.

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Thus far in the major leagues, Rocchio has not hit. He has a .213-.295-.327 career line in 528 plate appearances, good for a 74 OPS+. He’s in the big leagues because of his glove (he’s an AL Gold Glove finalist this season) - it was common knowledge that his bat would need to be developed at the major league level. And some of the greatest defensive shortstops in recent memory - the true glove-first guys - massively struggled early in their MLB careers.

Omar Vizquel? Through age 23 (two MLB seasons), he hit .231-.281-.276 with a 57 OPS+. Ozzie Smith? He arrived in the majors at age 23, and hit .258-.311-.312 with an 82 OPS+. At age 24, he had one of the worst offensive seasons in the last 50 years, posting a 48 OPS+. He didn’t again become a viable offensive player until years later. Oh, and the team that signed and developed both Vizquel (the Mariners) and Smith (the Padres) gave up on them, only to watch blossom into immortals elsewhere.

My point isn’t that Rocchio is going to become either Vizquel or Ozzie (though it’s not totally out of the question) - it’s that glove-first guys, especially ones with some track record of minor league success, tend to figure out the bat over time. They tend to have exceptional hand-eye coordination, which often translates to comparable bat-to-ball skills. They also tend to have an incredible work ethic, which they can apply to the other aspects of their game once their glove has accelerated their timetable to the big leagues.

And we’re already seeing it. He’s batting a lusty .435-.480-.652 through his first 25 postseason at bats, and already has a playoff homer. Sure, that sample size is as small as they come, but the eyes tell you he’s not intimidated and that he’s consistently putting together quality at bats.

If Brayan Rocchio plays out his years of team control with the Guardians (I don’t see them giving up on him, a la Vizquel/Smith’s original clubs) and becomes little more than what he is today - a bottom of the order hitter who is a defensive ace - then the club wins. But guess what - it’s very likely that he’ll evolve into more than that. He could wind up hitting first, second, sixth or seventh in a quality MLB batting order - a .280ish, 30 double, 12-15 homer guy. In that case, the Guardians have hit the jackpot.