UFC 307 Preview, Odds, Picks And Predictions: Aldo Vs. Bautista

02 Oct 2024 by Trent Reinsmith · Forbes

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL - MAY 04: Jose Aldo of Brazil reacts after his victory against Jonathan ... [+] Martinez in a bantamweight bout during the UFC 301 event at Farmasi Arena on May 04, 2024 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. (Photo by Alexandre Loureiro/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

The UFC 307 fight card takes place on Saturday, October 5, at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. The evening’s main event features UFC light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. In the UFC 307 co-main event, UFC women’s bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington meets former UFC 135-pound champ Julianna Pena. Before those title fights, there are a handful of important contests between ranked competitors. One of those bouts sees one of the UFC’s all-time greats, Jose Aldo, matched up against Mario Bautista in a bantamweight bout.

Aldo enters Saturday’s UFC 307 as the No. 10 fighter in the official UFC bantamweight rankings. Meanwhile, Bautista is the division’s No. 11 competitor.

Below, we look at the UFC 307 fight between Aldo and Bautista.

Careers

Jose Aldo

Jose Aldo (32-8) was 10-1 when he signed with the WEC in 2008. Aldo dispatched his first four opponents under that promotion’s banner by knockout. That run earned him a featherweight title eliminator against Cub Swanson in June 2009. That fight lasted eight seconds, with Aldo delivering a highlight reel finish that is a must-see finish for those new to the sport. It was, and remains, one of the best knockouts in MMA history.

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Aldo followed that win with a TKO of Mike Brown to earn the WEC crown. Title defenses against Urijah Faber and Manny Gamburyan followed. The UFC then absorbed the WEC, and the promotion then installed Aldo as the UFC’s inaugural featherweight champ.

Aldo’s UFC title run lasted seven fights, starting with an August 2011 decision win over Mark Hominick. His last successful title defense came in October 2014 when he knocked out Chad Mendes. Conor McGregor took the UFC featherweight title from Aldo in December 2015 with a nasty knockout, ending the fight in 13 seconds.

When McGregor was stripped of the UFC featherweight crown, Aldo, who had won the interim title with a decision over Frankie Edgar in July 2016, was promoted to undisputed champion. He lost the belt in his first defense, getting knocked out by Max Holloway in June 2017. A second knockout loss to Holloway followed in their title rematch in December 2017.

Aldo followed his two-fight losing skid with back-to-back knockout wins over Jeremy Stephens and Renato Moicano. That winning streak ended with three consecutive defeats between May 2019 and July 2020. During that stretch, Aldo fell to Alexander Volkanovski, Marlon Moraes, and Petr Yan.

Aldo’s downturn had many believing the best days of the future UFC Hall of Famer were behind him. However, Aldo is 4-1 since his loss to Yan, with his only setback being an August 2022 decision loss to Merab Dvalishvili.

Aldo took a long break from MMA after that defeat, but he returned to the Octagon in May, picking up a decision win over the favored Jonathan Martinez.

The 38-year-old Aldo has 17 knockout wins, one submission, and 14 decisions. His losses have come by knockout (four), submission (one), and decision (3).

Mario Bautista

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JANUARY 13: Mario Bautista reacts after his victory against Ricky Simon in a ... [+] bantamweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on January 13, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Mario Bautista (14-2) was 6-0 when he was tapped to replace the injured John Lineker against Cory Sandhagen. Sandhagen dispatched Bautista in the first round via armbar.

Bautista went 2-1 in his next three fights. His March 2021 TKO setback to Trevin Jones is the most recent loss on his record. Since that defeat, Bautista has gone 6-0 with three decisions and three submissions. His most recent win was a January decision triumph over Ricky Simon.

Bautista has three knockout wins, six subs, and five decisions. He has losses via knockout and submission.

UFC 307 Betting Odds: Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista

Bautista opened as a -175 betting favorite over Aldo, who opened as the +130 betting underdog. The betting lines have gotten a bit tighter as fight night approaches. Bautista is currently listed at -154 and Aldo at +115.

Significant Stats

Aldo averages 3.63 significant strikes landed per minute with an accuracy of 46 percent. His striking defense stands at 60 percent, and he gets hit 3.73 times per minute. Aldo averages 0.51 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy rate of 53 percent. His takedown defense is 91 percent.

Bautista is the more active striker, landing 5.69 times per minute. He is also more accurate at 48 percent. However, Bautista gets hit more often than his foe, averaging 3.99 strikes absorbed per minute with a defense of 53 percent. Bautista lands 2.25 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 44 percent. His takedown defense is 66 percent.

UFC 307 Pick and Prediction: Jose Aldo vs. Mario Bautista

Many thought time had caught up with Aldo during his three-fight losing skid. Those assumptions proved to be wrong. However, at some point that bill will come due, and this fight might be where Aldo starts to look his age as a bantamweight. The betting pick is for Bautista to beat Aldo by decision.