UFC Vegas 99 preview: ‘Hernandez vs. Pereira ’ main, co-main event predictions

Jesse Holland is among the longest-tenured media professionals in the combat sports news space, covering MMA, professional wrestling and boxing on a full-time basis since early 2004.

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 99 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Oct. 19, 2024) on ESPN+ from inside APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Vegas 99 features a middleweight main event between Top 15 title contenders Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira, a five-round headliner with major title implications for early 2025 and beyond.

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the bantamweight showdown between Rob Font and Kyler Phillips, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 99 main card by clicking here. Get all the latest “Hernandez vs. Pereira” odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel right here. For UFC Vegas 99 live results and play-by-play click here.

185 lbs.: Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira

Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez
Record: 12-2, 1 NC | Age: 31 | Betting line: -135
Wins: 2 KO/TKO, 8 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’0” | Reach: 75” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.30 | Striking accuracy: 59%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.46 | Striking Defense: 45%
Takedown Average: 6.62 (49% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 63%
Current Ranking: No. 13 | Last fight: Submission win over Roman Kopylov

Michel “Demolidor” Pereira
Record: 31-11, 2 NC | Age: 24 | Betting line: +110
Wins: 11 KO/TKO, 9 SUB, 11 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 8 DEC, 1 DQ
Height: 6’1“ | Reach: 73” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.16 | Striking accuracy: 54%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.70 | Striking Defense: 58%
Takedown Average: 1.53 (55% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 94%
Current Ranking: No. 14 | Last fight: Submission win over Ihor Potieria

After an electric run on the regional scene, Anthony Hernandez earned his shot at a UFC contract by way of Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in June 2018, where “Fluffy” summarily destroyed opponent Jordan Wright in the first minute of the opening frame. Unfortunately, Hernandez popped for marijuana and the result was overturned, though NSAC eventually revised its outdated stance on weed and the infraction did little to hurt Hernandez’s opportunity to pursue a career in cage fighting.

That turned out to be a win for all parties involved, as “Fluffy” has been nothing short of exceptional in the six years that followed. Hernandez is the winner of five straight with four violent finishes and bagged a pair of performance bonuses along the way. During that stretch he also racked up a staggering 25 takedowns and is now just a handful of takedowns away from cracking the Top 5 all-time among wrestling leaders in the 185-pound weight class. Not bad for a competitor who is still just 31 years old and fighting in his athletic prime.

“At the end of the day, when I get in the cage, it’s, ‘F*** you, fight me, b****, it’s as simple as that,” Hernandez told UFC.com. “I’m going to be there every second, like a little f***ing fly in your face bugging you. I’m just going to show everyone that the next champ is here. That’s the goal. That’s what it’s always been. This fight just shows that I’m going to get closer and closer. So be ready, motherf***ers.”

His wrestling will certainly be put to the test against Michel Pereira, a stingy defensive wrestler with a takedown defense of 94 percent. That was primarily in the welterweight division where he was fighting smaller competition, but he’s still got a height advantage on Hernandez. “Demolidor” started as one of the most violent fighters on the roster and quickly became must-watch TV with his crazy (and often effective) array of unorthodox attacks. The Brazilian has since tempered his wild style to focus more on winning and less on dazzling the crowd and it’s hard to argue against the results: eight straight wins with three straight finishes.

“I got very prepared, I’m very ready for this to go five rounds, but I do not think this fight is going to go five rounds,” Pereira told reporters at the UFC Vegas 99 media day. “Let’s wait and see what happens, but I do not believe this fight is going five rounds. I don’t pay attention to [the betting lines] because I do think he’s coming off four or five straight wins in the division, so I understand why people would say [he’s the favorite]. It’s the merit to his credit, much respect to him. I’m accomplishing that, and I’m making my own accomplishments right now. That’s what I’m going to get to in this division as well.”

Hernandez is a notoriously slow starter but what he lacks in aggressiveness he more than makes up for in stamina, certainly a concern for Pereira. I think the goal for “Fluffy” is to let “Demolidor” empty his tank with an early blitzkrieg, then take over midway through the fight and work to submit the exhausted Brazilian. The more likely scenario is that Pereira takes advantage of a little-too-composed Hernandez and melts him with an early attack — assuming he doesn’t get himself trapped in a guillotine upon entry.

Prediction: Pereira def. Hernandez by technical knockout

135 lbs.: Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips

Rob Font
Record: 20-8 | Age: 37 | Betting line: +320
Wins: 9 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 7 DEC
Height: 5’8“ | Reach: 71” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.53 | Striking accuracy: 45%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.65 | Striking Defense: 56%
Takedown Average: 0.89 (35% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 46%
Current Ranking: No. 10 | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Deiveson Figueiredo

Kyler “The Matrix” Phillips
Record: 12-2 | Age: 29 | Betting line: -430
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 5 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’8“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.72 | Striking accuracy: 45%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.38 | Striking Defense: 61%
Takedown Average: 2.41 (46% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 75%
Current Ranking: No. 12 | Last fight: Unanimous decision victory over Pedro Munhoz

There was a time in the not-too-distant past when Rob Font was ranked No. 4 at 135 pounds and perhaps one big performance away from a crack at the bantamweight crown. Unfortunately, Font was unable to get past former featherweight champion Jose Aldo and what followed was a compete collapse, to the tune of four losses across his next five fights. That includes his unanimous decision defeat to the resurgent Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC Austin last December and now Font is in danger of dropping out of the division Top 10 against a much-younger opponent with an impressive win streak.

“Kyler, he brings it,” Font told reporters at the UFC Vegas 99 media day. “He’s nonstop action. These type of guys, there’s more opportunities to counter, more opportunities to get finishes, and they’re not necessarily a boring fight at all. I think this is a great matchup. I think this is a ‘Fight of the Night’ for sure. Like I said, he brings it. He starts off fast. I believe I start off fast, as well. He has a wild kicking style. He’ll pull guard and try to jump on submissions.”

“This feels similar to when I fought Adrian Yanez,” Font continued. “Unfortunately I lost two in a row, then I fought him, got a big win and then lost another two in a row. Now I’m back with another unranked fighter that’s super dangerous, so it has that feeling. It just gets me up and ready to go. I know with a big win, a big finish, the headlines will be different.”

Kyler Phillips is a product of Dana White’s “Contender Series,” scoring a technical knockout victory over James Gray Jr. but he failed to earn a contract on the inaugural season of the combat sports proving ground. “The Matrix” eventually got called up for UFC Norfolk and established himself as one of the division’s future stars with a 6-1 run. That said, a positive drug test for Ostarine back in May 2023 may have cost him some shine, which he can reclaim with a dominant performance this weekend at APEX. Phillips has relied mostly on speed and athleticism thus far in his career and there’s probably little reason to do otherwise against a 37 year-old Font who looks to be on the downside of his career.

“We got a good opponent,” Phillips told reporters at the UFC Vegas 99 media day. “We got one of the names we wanted. So it’s an honor to be able to do that and step into the Octagon with such a decorated fighter. I see myself matching up very well against anybody in the division, just because of my elusiveness and able to adapt on the fly at any given moment, but still have that basis of a strong fighter.”

Phillips has been winning in recent years and Font has been losing, so it’s no surprise to see “The Matrix” as the odds-on betting favorite. That said, -430 seems ridiculously high against a veteran like Font, who has knockout power and solid fundamentals. In addition, Font has been fighting at or near the top of the food chain for years, batting ex-champions and top title contenders, and most of his losses have been close affairs. Phillips is dangerous early and Font has looked befuddled from time-to-time, but I think he weathers an early storm and settles down later in the fight, stealing a decision on the judges’ scorecards.

Prediction: Font def. Phillips by decision

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 99 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.

LIVE! Stream UFC Vegas 99 On ESPN+

MIDDLEWEIGHT MAYHEM! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to its APEX venue in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., Oct. 19, 2024, with an exciting Middleweight main event between two surging contenders as No. 13-ranked Anthony Hernandez ranked takes on No. 14-seeded Michel Pereira. In addition, exciting Bantamweight standouts Rob Font (No. 10) vs. Kyler Phillips (No. 11) hook ‘em up in UFC Vegas 99’s hard-hitting co-headliner.

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MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 99 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card matchups which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 99 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Hernandez vs. Pereira” fight card and ESPN+ lineup click here.