USATSI

NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model backs Falcons, Commanders in Week 6, 2024

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 6 NFL betting picks from 10,000 simulations

09 Oct 2024, 13:27 · CBS Sports

The Vikings (5-0) are the only team undefeated against the spread, but you can't use them in Week 6 NFL bets since they're on a bye. Meanwhile, the Texans, who previously had no NFL against the spread victories, covered for the first time last week, so they won't be as easy a squad to fade with Week 6 NFL picks as before beating Buffalo. Which games should you target as part of your NFL betting picks as the season enters Week 6? There are several divisional games with slim Week 6 NFL spreads on Sunday, including Buccaneers vs. Saints (+3.5), Titans vs. Colts (-1) and Broncos vs. Chargers (-3).

Meanwhile, Eagles vs. Browns (+8.5) is the lone game with Week 6 NFL odds of more than a touchdown. All of the Week 6 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 6 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 10-2 hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 191-131 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 45-23 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 6 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 6 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 6 NFL picks is that the Falcons (-6, 47.5) cover the spread versus the Panthers. After winning in Andy Dalton's first start, Carolina has since suffered back-to-back double-digit defeats. It is just 1-4 ATS this season, which is tied for the worst mark in the league, and its five ATS victories since the start of last season are outright the fewest in the NFL.

The Falcons have won three of their last four, and Kirk Cousins is coming off the game of his life with 509 yards and four passing TDs versus the Bucs. Atlanta has a top-10 total offense and passing offense, while also ranking in the top 10 in passing defense. The latter will make it hard for Dalton, Bryce Young or whomever is at QB for Carolina to move the ball, as will the Panthers ranking 28th in third-down conversion percentage. Atlanta (-5.5) is projected to win by at least a touchdown and cover in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 6 NFL betting predictions: the Commanders (+6.5, 52.5) cover on the road versus the Ravens. Only the undefeated Vikings and Chiefs have longer winning streaks than Washington's four straight victories, and they've covered in each of those four as well. Its last two victories have both come by at least 21 points, while the team ranks second in the league with 31 points per game.

That potent offense should provide a problem for a Ravens defense which has uncharacteristically struggled. After leading the NFL in scoring defense a year ago, Baltimore ranks just 26th this year, giving up nearly 10 more ppg than in 2023. Joe Burrow just tossed five TD passes against Baltimore, which has allowed the second-most passing yards this season. With Jayden Daniels' 77.1 CMP% leading the NFL, he should be able to dice up the Ravens defense. The SportsLine model has the Commanders (+6.5) covering well over 50% of the time, while the Over (52) also hits in well over 50% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 6 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 6 NFL schedule and just revealed two underdogs that outright win, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which two must-see underdogs should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.