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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model high on Saints, Steelers in Week 4, 2024

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 4 NFL betting picks from 10,000 simulations

26 Sep 2024, 13:24 · CBS Sports

The New Orleans Saints will try to get back in the win column after suffering their first loss of the season against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Saints opened the season with two convincing victories before suffering their first setback and now they'll visit the Atlanta Falcons in a NFC South rivalry game. The Falcons enter Sunday's showdown in Atlanta having lost both of their home games this season. However, the latest Week 4 NFL odds list the Falcons as 2.5-point favorites, one of the slimmest NFL spreads of the week.

The Saints have dominated this rivalry in recent years, winning four of the last five meetings. Should your Week 4 NFL betting picks include the Saints, or should you target another division rivalry in the NFL betting odds like Vikings vs. Packers (-2.5), Jaguars vs. Texans (-6.5) or Chiefs vs. Chargers (+7.5)? All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 4 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 4 NFL picks is that the Saints (+2.5, 42.5) cover the spread versus the Falcons. The Saints have had success against the Falcons in recent years. In fact, New Orleans is 7-3 in its last 10 meetings against Atlanta.

The Saints enter Sunday's showdown averaging 34.3 points per game on offense, which ranks second in the NFL. Running back Alvin Kamara has been sensational for New Orleans, rushing 61 times for 285 yards and four touchdowns. He's also hauled in 10 of 11 targets for 132 yards and a score. Kamara finished with 119 all-purpose yards in the road tilt against the Falcons last season, and SportsLine's model expects he'll be heavily involved again on Sunday. The model projects Kamara will finish with more than 100 all-purpose yards as the Saints secure the victory and cover the spread in over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 4 NFL betting predictions: the Steelers (-1.5, 40) cover on the road versus the Colts. The Steelers are 3-0 heading into Sunday's showdown against the Colts. Pittsburgh has been able to secure wins behind its dominant defense, which leads the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 8.7 points per game.

The Steelers have held their opposition to 10 points or less and under 300 total yards in each of the first three games, becoming the first team to accomplish that impressive feat in 20 years. In last week's victory over the Chargers, the Steelers gave up just 168 total yards. That doesn't bode well for Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson, who's thrown five interceptions over his last two games. SportsLine's model is calling for Pittsburgh's defense to frustrate the Colts' offense on Sunday, helping the Steelers cover the spread well over 50% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 4 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule and just revealed three teams that win outright at least 70% of the time, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see teams should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.