Texas State vs. Troy prediction, odds, line, spread: 2024 college football Week 6 picks by proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Thursday's Troy Trojans vs. Texas State Bobcats matchup 10,000 times

The Texas State Bobcats open Sun Belt play on Thursday night when they battle the Troy Trojans at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Ala. Texas State is coming off a 40-39 loss at Sam Houston State, while Troy fell 13-9 to Louisiana-Monroe on Saturday. The Bobcats (2-2, 0-0 Sun Belt), who are playing in their first true road game, have outscored their opponents 150-108 this season. The Trojans (1-4, 0-1 Sun Belt), who are 1-2 on their home field, have been outscored 129-107 in 2024.

Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET. Troy leads the all-time series 13-1, including an 8-0 mark at home. The Trojans have a 12-game winning streak against the Bobcats. The Bobcats are 13.5-point favorites in the latest Texas State vs. Troy odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 57.5. Before making any Troy vs. Texas State picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a profit of over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks. It also went a sizzling 6-0 on all top-rated college football picks in Week 5. Anyone who has followed it has seen strong returns.

The model has set its sights on Texas State vs. Troy. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football betting lines for the spread, money line and over/under for the Troy vs. Texas State game: 

• Texas State vs. Troy spread: Texas State -13.5     
• Texas State vs. Troy over/under: 57.5 points
• Texas State vs. Troy money line: Texas State -538, Troy +390
• TXS: The Bobcats have hit the first quarter Over in nine of their last 11 games (+6.85 units)
• TROY: The Trojans have hit the first quarter Under in their last 12 games (+12.00 units)
• Texas State vs. Troy picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Texas State vs. Troy streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why you should back Texas State

Senior quarterback Jordan McCloud has been solid this season for the Bobcats. He has completed 97 of 140 passes (69.3%) for 1,141 yards and 12 touchdowns with three interceptions and a 161.7 rating. He is also the Bobcats' third-leading rusher with 21 carries for 101 yards (4.8 average) and two touchdowns. In Saturday's loss to Sam Houston State, he completed 29 of 39 passes (74.4%) for 326 yards and three touchdowns.

Junior running back Ismail Mahdi also powers the Texas State offense. In the season-opening win over Louisiana-Monroe, he carried 28 times for 156 yards (5.6 average) and one touchdown. For the season, he has carried 68 times for 307 yards (4.5 average) and a score. He has also caught 11 passes for 89 yards (8.1 average), including a long of 37 yards. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back Troy

Junior quarterback Goose Crowder and sophomore QB Tucker Kilcrease split snaps last week in the loss to Louisiana-Monroe. Crowder is the Trojans' top passer, completing 43 of 62 passes (69.4%) for 542 yards and five touchdowns. Kilcrease has completed 9 of 17 (52.9%) for 134 yards and one TD. He also has rushed 21 times for 125 yards (6.0 average), including a long of 25 yards.

Leading the Bobcats' rushing attack is junior running back Damien Taylor. He has surpassed 100 yards rushing twice this year, including a 15-carry, 109-yard and one-touchdown performance against Florida A&M in a 34-12 win on Sept. 21. He carried 11 times for 103 yards and a score in a 28-26 loss to Nevada on Aug. 31. For the season, he has carried 57 times for 336 yards (5.9 average) and two TDs. See which team to pick here.

How to make Texas State vs. Troy picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 53 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Texas State vs. Troy, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas State vs. Troy spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $2,000 on its FBS college football picks since its inception, and find out.