MLB predictions, picks: Best bets for Mets vs. Phillies, Padres vs. Dodgers as Fernando Tatis Jr. stays hot

There are two NLDS games on Tuesday, so let's get some action

The best thing about the 2024 Major League Baseball playoffs to this point has been the drama. I have to give that sort of generalized answer because there's been so much of it. These games have nearly all been incredible. Most have been close and even the blowout in Dodger Stadium on Sunday night had elements of fun. 

Tuesday gives us a tasty offering of two games on the NL side, where things have already been nuts. Let's hope things continue on this path and also grab some gambling plays while we're here, too. 

Phillies at Mets, 5:08 p.m. ET

RHP Aaron Nola vs. LHP Sean Manaea

Much like his regular-season exploits, Nola has a mixed bag of postseason success. He's been a dominant ace in stretches but also has had some hiccups. Last year's four starts went awesome, pretty good, awesome and pretty bad, respectively. This season, he was slightly worse on the road (3.29 ERA at home, 3.87 on the road) and closed with a sub-par final month. Contained in that month was the Mets lighting him up for six runs on six hits -- including two homers -- in 4 1/3 innings. 

The last time the Mets played a home game, they beat the Phillies, 2-1. It was Sept. 22. They had no idea a hurricane would alter their schedule to the point that they needed to play a doubleheader on the day that was supposed to be off between the regular season and playoffs. The Mets won 15 of their last 19 games at home, too. 

Manaea faced the Phillies on Sept. 21, getting the win after giving up three runs on three hits in seven innings. He was shelled by the Phillies on June 8, but threw very well against them on May 13. He was, in general, worse at home (3.75 ERA) than on the road (3.17). Last time out, he allowed two runs on six hits in five innings against the Brewers. 

The play: First five innings, over 4 runs (+100)

It's all laid out above regarding the pitchers. It's been said that the shadows were an issue for hitters in the early innings in Citizens Bank Park, but this one starts a little bit later, a little bit further East and it looks like it'll be mostly cloudy. The Mets offense has been explosive for a while and the Phillies looked like themselves in the latter part of Game 2 on Sunday. It seems pretty reasonable to expect the score to be something like 3-2 through five innings in this one. 

The play: Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+110)

Schwarber hit better on the road than at home this season. He actually hit lefties better than righties, sporting a .300/.407/.491 line against southpaws. Against Manaea this season he was 2 for 6 with a home run and that homer came on Sept. 21 to lead off the game. We already know he's one of the greatest playoff power hitters ever, statistically. Things line up well for him here, especially sitting atop that lineup when I'm expecting some scoring. 

Dodgers at Padres, 9:08 p.m. ET

RHP Walker Buehler vs. RHP Michael King

Buehler was 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA this season. He was worse on the road with a 6.53 ERA. The Padres saw him twice and his numbers aren't good overall, but he did only allow one run in five innings last time, which was Sept. 26. It was at home, though. In 15 career playoff starts, he's been more great than anything else, sporting a 2.94 ERA in 79 2/3 innings. 

King had a good season, but he was outstanding down the stretch and not necessarily in a small sample. In his last 14 starts, he had a 2.03 ERA. He started Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against the Braves and was masterful, striking out 12 in seven scoreless innings. He last saw the Dodgers Sept. 24, giving up an unearned run on three hits in five innings. 

The play: Fernando Tatis Jr. over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI

We know what kind of off-the-charts talent Tatis has, as long as he can stay on the field. It looks like he's in the process of going nuclear this postseason, as he is so far 9 for 14 (.643) with two doubles, three homers, five RBI and seven runs. That's in four games. Ridiculous. 

In his career against Buehler, he's 8 for 27 (.296) with four home runs, with one of those coming on May 12 this season.