Orioles' AL East title hopes dwindling: Three causes behind Baltimore's disappointing second half

The Orioles are four games below .500 since the All-Star Game

The Baltimore Orioles suffered their third consecutive loss on Wednesday, dropping a 5-3 final at home to the San Francisco Giants. The Orioles, 26-30 since the All-Star Game, are now five games back of the New York Yankees in the American League East -- the largest deficit they've faced at any point this season. 

Baltimore does have a three-game set remaining against the Yankees, but barring something dramatic, the Orioles will be start their playoff run as a wild-card team. As it stands, SportsLine gives them just a 1.6% chance of winning the division, as opposed to a 99.1% chance of securing a playoff berth.

It wasn't that long ago the Orioles had a real hope of winning consecutive AL East crowns for the first time since 1973-74. Just what has caused Baltimore to -- in the words of general manager Mike Elias -- lose their "mojo"? Below, CBS Sports has highlighted three different factors that have the Orioles reeling at the worst time.

1. Rutschman, Burnes scuffling

Were you asked to name the best players on the Orioles, you might start with Gunnar Henderson. It wouldn't take long before you rattled off the names of catcher Adley Rutschman and right-handed starter Corbin Burnes. Unfortunately for the Birds, both Rutschman and Burnes have performed below expectations during the second half.

Rutschman enters Thursday batting .201/.285/.302 since the break, marks that equate to a 70 wRC+ (a one-stop metric housed by FanGraphs that adjusts for ballpark and other variables). For reference, that's the lowest figure among the nine Orioles who have tallied at least 100 trips to the plate in that time span. Lower, even, than rookie second baseman Jackson Holliday, who continues to adjust to life in the majors.

It's not just that Rutschman's results have been worse. His average exit velocity since the break is 86.6 mph and he's recorded an exit velocity over 95 mph on less than 28% of his batted balls. Conversely, his exit velocity during the first half was 88.8 mph and he notched an exit velocity over 95 mph on 40% of his batted balls. It's unclear if Rutschman is injured -- catching takes a toll on the body -- or if he's simply mired in a months-long slump. Either way, he's become a black hole in the Orioles lineup.

Burnes, meanwhile, continues to sport impressive full-season marks. He did encounter some turbulence during the month of August, however, surrendering 21 earned runs in 25 innings. His strikeout rate has declined from one half to the next, too: whereas he struck out more than eight batters per nine innings pre-break, he's struck out just 7.6 batters per nine innings over his last 11 starts.

Burnes isn't the lone reason the Orioles rank 21st in ERA since the break. Far from it.

2. Pitchers not carrying weight

The Orioles' offense has taken a step back since the first half, when they ranked fifth in runs scored and first in wRC+, but they still rank top 10 in the majors in both categories during the second half. It's been the pitching staff that has given Baltimore fits. 

Put simply, the Orioles have given a lot of innings over the last two months to pitchers who aren't getting the job done. 

Various rotation injuries, including to Grayson Rodriguez, have left the Orioles trying different solutions at the back end. It's understandable, if frustrating, that the likes of Albert Suárez (a pleasant surprise early on) and rookie Cade Povich have scuffled. To the front office's credit, they've taken action to correct their course where they can. 

Some of the most notable moves included optioning deadline acquisition Trevor Rogers (7.11 ERA in four starts) to the minors; designating Cole Irvin for assignment (5.79 ERA in seven outings); and then doing the same to veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel after a wretched run that saw him surrender 20 earned runs in his last 17 innings. 

The Orioles are, as of this writing, still rostering Burch Smith and Gregory Soto, both of whom have an ERA over 6.00 since the start of the second half. Those two happen to have something else in common: both are in-season additions that haven't worked out.

3. Deadline approach yields mixed bag

We mentioned Rogers and Soto above. They were two pieces of the Orioles' deadline haul. The Orioles also netted veteran slugger Eloy Jiménez, who enters Wednesday sporting a 72 OPS+ since changing teams. That's not what you want.

If the Orioles fail to capture the American League pennant, you're likely to see more second-guessing about what they did at the deadline. Mind you, not all of Baltimore's trade additions have faltered -- veteran right-hander Zach Eflin has pitched quite well (2.22 ERA in seven starts around a stint on the injured list), and reliever Seranthony Domínguez has slid into the closer's role without much issue -- but that's not going to prevent people from questioning if Elias and company added enough talent.

It doesn't help Baltimore's case that, even at the time, other front offices questioned the wisdom of the Rogers trade. Sure enough, one of the players they surrendered for Rogers, infielder Connor Norby, has played well since. Norby comes into Wednesday batting .282/.330/.534 with six home runs in 26 games with the Miami Marlins.

The Orioles' front office is always a little polarizing. We know rival talent evaluators who consider them to be the best unit in the game. We also know evaluators who are more prone to question if their obsession with efficiency and surplus value will prevent them from maximizing their young core's chances at winning a World Series. 

Wherever you fall on Elias and company, this much is clear: baseball is a results-based business. The teams that get the results get praised, the teams that don't get criticized. All it's going to take for the Orioles to return to everyone's good graces is for them to resume winning games. It might be too late for Baltimore to salvage the division title, but there are other, bigger prizes left for the Orioles to pursue. Nab at least one of them over the coming month, and nobody will care about the Orioles' deadline moves -- or their last few weeks of uninspiring baseball.