Fantasy Football Rankings Risers and Fallers: Bench your Browns, start Chase Brown

Tank Bigsby is a factor, but don't get too down on Travis Etienne

It's a shorter list of risers and fallers than last week. That's partially because Week 5 was the first week of NFL byes, and the Chargers, Eagles, Lions, and Titans didn't play this week. It's also because next week is the second week of byes, so any changes we saw from the Dolphins, Rams, Vikings, and Chiefs (Monday night) won't factor into the Week 6 rankings. But there will be some things we're watching closely for those teams returning from the bye.

The most important thing we are watching is the status of the Eagles wide receivers. DeVonta Smith missed Week 4 in the concussion protocol, and A.J. Brown hasn't played since Week 1 with a hamstring injury. If both return, that will be huge for Jalen Hurts, and but it will drop Dallas Goedert from the number one tight end to a low-end starter. Brown is a must-start wide receiver whenever he plays, but when everyone is healthy, Smith is more of a boom/bust WR3. With all the injuries and bye weeks, he may sneak into my top 24. 

We have a variety of injuries we'll be watching for the teams going on their bye. Chief among them is what Kansas City finds out about Rashee Rice's knee when it's scoped this week. He's still a must-roster until they confirm the ACL is torn. De'Von Achane, Aaron Jones, and Jordan Whittington all left Week 5 with injuries, and all get an extra week to heal up, thanks to the bye. Whittington is the only one you can consider dropping, mostly because we're expecting Cooper Kupp to return in Week 7.

No reason to trust the Browns

It's still hard for me to believe that an offense with Deshaun Watson and Amari Cooper is going to be this awful. I think it's more likely they rebound at some point than not. Maybe that will be when the offensive line gets healthy or when Nick Chubb returns, maybe after their Week 10 bye. What we learned in Week 5 is that there's no matchup that can do it for them. I gave the Browns a healthy matchup boost in the projections because the Commanders had been very generous this season. The Browns were absolutely awful. I'm not giving them any credit against the Eagles in Week 6. They'll have to show me something has changed before I'll believe it. 

Chase Brown may be the best back in Cincinnati

Let's be clear: Brown has definitely looked like the best back in Cincinnati. But Moss still played more snaps in this game and even had a carry after what looked like a serious ankle injury. This presents the first possibility. If Moss' ankle swells up and he misses Week 6, then Brown will be the RB1 for the Bengals and likely an RB1 for Fantasy football purposes as well. I would project him for 60% of the team's rush attempts and 10% of their targets.

Option two is that Moss may play, but Brown may just dominate and lead the team in production and Fantasy points. If Moss plays, expect a near 50/50 projection for touches, with Brown's efficiency making him a low-end RB2 while Moss ranks as a high-end flex. Even if Moss misses time, I would not want to drop him. 

Tank Bigsby is a factor

Bigsby led Jacksonville with 13 carries for 101 yards and scored two touchdowns. The starter, Travis Etienne, carried the ball six times for 17 yards. This is the second game in a row that Bigsby has been the much better rusher, and it's time to project him as the lead rusher. The only saving grace for Etienne was that he saw a 20% target share in this game and still scored 12 PPR Fantasy points because of those targets. This looks like another one of those situations where we have two running backs ranked between RB20 and RB30 every week. Next week, I'm projecting Bigsby to lead this team in rush attempts, but Etienne's target share will keep him in the RB2 discussion. Just don't get too down on Etienne, Doug Pederson says he's still their guy.

Time to stop making excuses for Breece Hall

Hall had nine carries for 23 yards in Week 5. He turned four targets into 14 yards. It was his second straight game with single-digit Fantasy points. He's also had 12 or fewer touches and less than 40 total yards in each of those two games. Hall is losing running back touches to Braelon Allen, but also, the team is just not running the ball as much as they were. Probably because they cannot do it successfully. You'll still see Hall ranked as a starter in Week 5, at least partially because the Bills have been such a great matchup for running backs. I do not expect you'll see Hall ranked in my top 12.

Welcome back Brandon Aiyuk

Of course, Aiyuk has been here all season. He just hadn't been himself. He came into the week second on the team with a 20.7% target share but he didn't have a 50-yard game or a touchdown yet. He still hasn't scored a touchdown, but he did score 22.7 PPR Fantasy points on 12 targets against Arizona. It was Deebo Samuel's turn to take a back seat, and probably a good reminder in the projections to keep these guys ranked closer than their recent production suggests. Expect both to be ranked as WR2s in Week 6, with Samuel still the preferred option. But I do project Aiyuk for a team-high 26% target share.

Rico Dowdle takes the reigns

Dowdle set a career-high with 22 touches in Week 5. His 64.5% rush share was the highest mark for any Cowboys running back all season. This pretty clearly looks like his backfield, although I wouldn't be against Ezekiel Elliott receiving the next goal line rush attempt. I've bumped Dowdle's rush share up to 53% for Week 6, and even with Elliott in the goal line role, Dowdle's touchdown odds will get a boost as the Cowboys game against the Lions opens with an over/under of 52, the highest of Week 6. I would not be surprised if Dowdle ranks as a top-24 running back for the first time this season.