Phillies vs. Mets prediction, odds, line, time: 2024 NLDS Game 1 picks, MLB playoff bets by proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Saturday's New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies matchup 10,000 times in Game 1 of the NLDS

The stage is set for the 2024 NLDS as the New York Mets travel to play the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 on Saturday. The Phillies went 95-67 during the regular season and notched the No. 2 seed in the NL playoff bracket. Meanwhile, the Mets knocked off the Milwaukee Brewers in three games. In Game 3, New York first baseman Pete Alonso belted the go-ahead three-run homer in the ninth inning to top the Brewers 4-2. Zack Wheeler (16-7, 2.57 ERA) gets the start for Philadelphia. Kodai Senga (1-0, 3.38 ERA), who has dealt with injuries most of the season, has been activated and is on the hill for New York.

The first pitch is set for 4:08 p.m. ET. The Phillies are listed at -183 in the money line (risk $183 to win $100) in the latest Phillies vs. Mets odds. The over/under for total runs scored is 7. Before making any Mets vs. Phillies picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. Entering the 2024 MLB playoffs, it's on a 32-17 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+822) that dates back to last season. Anybody following has seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mets vs. Phillies and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Phillies vs. Mets: 

• Phillies vs. Mets money line: Philadelphia -183, New York +153
• Phillies vs. Mets run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+121)
• Phillies vs. Mets over/under: 7 runs
• PHI: Returned +2090 on the money line this year
• NYM: Returned +840 on the money line this year
• Phillies vs. Mets picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Phillies vs. Mets streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why you should back the Phillies

Wheeler is a dominant arm for Philadelphia. Wheeler has an explosive fastball with a nice range of pitches. He uses his changeup, slider and curve to keep his hitters off balance. This season, the 34-year-old is third in the MLB in ERA (2.57), strikeouts (224) and WHIP (0.96). He's logged eight-plus strikeouts in 13 games this past regular season.

First baseman Bryce Harper owns an effortless swing that pushes the ball into any part of the field. Harper has great plate coverage as well. This season, the 31-year-old is hitting .285 with 30 home runs and 87 RBI. Designated hitter Kyle Schwarber is another power hitter in the lineup for Philadelphia. Schwarber led the team in both home runs (38) and RBI (104). See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Mets

The Mets will look to keep the momentum going in Philadelphia on Saturday. Alonso is a power slugger in the lineup with the strength to hit the ball into the gap. In 2024, the 29-year-old hit .240 with 34 dingers and 88 RBI. In his last outing, Alonso went 1-of-4 with a three-run homer.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor provides New York with a difference maker on both ends. Lindor has terrific range and a strong arm defensively. As a hitter, he has great contact ability, but is patient as well. In 152 regular season games, Lindor went .273 with 33 home runs, 91 RBI and an OPS of .844. In Thursday's win over the Brewers, he went 2-of-3 with a double and one walk. See which team to pick here.

How to make Mets vs. Phillies picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the run total, projecting 8.8 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the MLB model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Phillies vs. Mets, and which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that's on a 32-17 roll on top-rated MLB run-line picks, and find out.