Yankees vs. Guardians prediction, odds, line, time: 2024 ALCS Game 1 picks, MLB playoff bets by proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Monday's ALCS Game 1 Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees matchup 10,000 times

The New York Yankees are looking to end a 15-year World Series drought when they take on the Cleveland Guardians in Game 1 of the 2024 American League Championship Series on Monday. New York last made the World Series in 2009, when the Yankees defeated the Philadelphia Phillies in six games. Cleveland would like to reach the Fall Classic for the first time since 2016, when it lost a seven-game series to the Chicago Cubs. The Guardians have not won a World Series since 1948, when the franchise defeated the Boston Braves in six games.

First pitch from Yankee Stadium in New York is set for 7:38 p.m. ET. New York is a -164 favorite on the money line (risk $164 to win $100) in the latest Yankees vs. Guardians odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 7.5. Before making any Guardians vs. Yankees picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered the 2024 NLCS and ALCS on a 32-17 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+822) that dates back to last season. Anybody following has seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Guardians vs. Yankees and just locked in its picks and MLB playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Yankees vs. Guardians: 

• Yankees vs. Guardians money line: New York -164, Cleveland +138
• Yankees vs. Guardians over/under: 7.5 runs
• Yankees vs. Guardians run line: New York -1.5 (+132)
• CLE: The Guardians are +1883 on the money line this season 
• NYY: The Yankees are -361 on the money line this season 
• Yankees vs. Guardians picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Yankees vs. Guardians streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why you should back the Yankees

New York is expected to send left-hander Carlos Rodon (16-9, 3.96 ERA) to the mound. In 175 innings pitched during the regular season, he allowed 157 hits, 77 earned runs and 57 walks, while striking out 195. In his last outing, he took a 4-2 loss to the Kansas City Royals in Game 2 of the ALDS, going 3.2 innings and allowing seven hits and four earned runs, while striking out seven. He has pitched well against Cleveland throughout his career, going 8-5 with a 2.81 ERA with 41 walks and 124 strikeouts.

Helping power the offense is right fielder Juan Soto. In 157 regular-season games, Soto batted .288 with 31 doubles, four triples, 41 homers and 109 RBI. He is batting .286 in the postseason. In the Game 1 win over Kansas City, Soto was 3-for-5 with a double. He has shown some pop against Cleveland this season and in six games against the Guardians, he batted .261 with one double, three homers and nine RBI. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Guardians

Cleveland is expected to counter with right-handed pitcher Alex Cobb (2-1, 2.76 ERA). He won his last two decisions of the regular season after missing most of the year following hip labrum surgery. He took the Game 2 loss to the Detroit Tigers, a 3-0 decision, after pitching three innings, allowing three hits, two earned runs and one walk, while striking out two. In his last regular-season outing on Sept. 1, he picked up the win in a 6-1 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates, pitching six innings and allowing two hits, one unearned run, while striking out six.

Helping lead the Guardians offense is left fielder Steven Kwan. He was on fire during the ALDS win over the Detroit Tigers, batting .524 with six runs scored, one double and two walks. He had three hits in each of the last three games of the series, including a 3-for-5 performance in the 7-3 win in the decisive Game 5 on Saturday. In 122 games during the regular season, Kwan batted .292 with 16 doubles, three triples, 14 homers, 44 RBI and 83 runs scored. See which team to pick here.

How to make Guardians vs. Yankees picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the run total, projecting 8.5 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the MLB model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Guardians vs. Yankees, and which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that's on a 32-17 roll on top-rated MLB run-line picks, and find out.