Jared Goff-led Lions offense vs. Packers opportunistic defense: Who will prevail in NFC North clash for first?

Two of the NFL's best units will go head to head in Week 9

First place in the NFL's most competitive division, the NFC North, is on the line in Week 9 on Sunday when the 6-1 Detroit Lions square off with the 6-2 Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. 

What factors are going to decide which of these two squads is atop the standings following their showdown this weekend? Let's take a deep dive into what is going to decide this contest and figure out where the advantages are. Here we go. 

Lions offense vs. Packers defense

The Lions lead the entire NFL in scoring offense (33.4 points per game), and they are rewriting the record books before our very eyes. The Lions are on a five-game winning streak, and they are averaging 38.4 points per game during the streak, which is the Lions' most in a five-game span within a season since 1952, per CBS Sports Research. Detroit is also the only team on record since at least 1940 to have more touchdowns (25) than incompletions (20) in a five-game span within a season, per CBS Sports Research.

So how how good has Lions three-time Pro Bowl quarterback Jared Goff been during the streak? That last statistic gives you an idea, but I'll paint the picture: Detroit likely wishes it could bottle up what Goff is producing right now and pour it out in the postseason come January and potentially February. His 83% completion percentage and 146.5 passer rating are both the most in a five-game span in NFL history, minimum 100 passing attempts, a stretch that also includes Goff accounting for 13 total touchdowns (12 passing and one receiving) and only one interception. That's outstanding. 

Jahmyr Gibbs is also heating up, becoming the second Lions running back in the Super Bowl era, since 1966, with a rushing touchdown of 40 or more yards in consecutive games along with Pro Football Hall of Famer Barry Sanders (1997). Fellow Lions running back David Montgomery has 10 rushing touchdowns in his last 10 games, and All-Pro receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is the first Lion with a receiving touchdown in five consecutive games in a season since Megatron himself, Pro Football Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson back in 2011. 

For all the weaponry the Lions have, the way they have also been efficient in taking care of the football has been key. The Lions have only turned the ball over five times in seven games, the fourth-fewest giveaways in the league this season, but they will face a Packers defense that leads the NFL in takeaways with 19. Something has to give. 

New Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is judicious with his blitzes by blitzing at the NFL's third-lowest rate (18.5%), but when they do blitz, they're effective. The Packers have generated pressure on 51.8% of their blitzes this season, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL, per NFL Pro Insights. Goff has averaged an NFL-best 12.2 yards per attempt against the blitz this season, per NFL Pro Insights. Goff is coming off of a performance in Week 8 against the Tennessee Titans, a 52-14 win, in which he connected on every one of his seven passes against the blitz for 56 yards and three touchdowns. When pressured, which also covers when not being blitzed, he is averaging an NFL-best 70.9% completion percentage and 11.2 yards per attempt. Those are also both the highest figures for a qualified quarterback since 2018. However, the Packers allow the fifth-lowest completion percentage (44.9%) and the sixth-lowest yards per attempt (5.4) when generating pressure against opposing quarterbacks in 2024. 

Hafley's scheme and free agency acquisition safety Xavier McKinney have been a match made in heaven thus far this season as he has come away with more interceptions (six, the most in the NFL) and recorded more passes defended (seven) than the amount (five) as the nearest defender in coverage this season. McKinney's six interceptions are the most in a player's first eight games with a team since safety Darren Sharper joined the New Orleans Saints in 2009 and had seven in his first eight games. That year, Sharper finished with a league-leading nine interceptions, and the Saints won their franchise's only Super Bowl title. Quarterbacks have been throwing deep against him at their own peril: five of his six interceptions are on deep passes -- throws of 20 or more air yards per NFL Pro Insights. McKinney's partner in crime, Green Bay Pro Bowl corner Jaire Alexander, has rounded into form after a slow start to 2024: he has surrendered just two completions on six targets for 13 yards in wins against the Houston Texans and at the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

Packers second-round rookie linebacker Edgerrin Cooper is also coming into his own after winning NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors in Week 8 for the following production in a road win in Jacksonville: eight tackles, a sack and a pass defensed. Cooper is the first rookie this season with at least five tackles, a sack and a forced fumble in a game. 

The Lions not having speedster Jameson Williams, who is suspended for two games for a violation of the NFL's performance-enhancing substances (PES) policy, will be a big deal against a pass defense adept at defending downfield. Goff is averaging 4.3 air yards per pass attempt on 32 passes without Williams on the field and 7.6 air yards per attempt on 157 passes with Williams on the field this season.   

Edge: Coin toss

Packers offense vs. Lions defense

Green Bay's starting quarterback is currently unknown for Week 9. Face of the franchise Jordan Love left the team's Week 8 game at the Jaguars in the third quarter with a groin injury. He didn't practice on Wednesday, but he expressed optimism that he could play on Sunday, even if he doesn't practice at all during the week. 

"I think it's realistic," Love said Wednesday when asked about playing in Week 9. "Obviously not practicing during the week is not the ideal format for trying to play a game, but like I said things happen. If that's the scenario, I know I'll be fine, but it's definitely not the ideal scenario for going into a big week."

Coach Matt LaFleur said Love could "potentially" start on Sunday even without practicing all week if cleared by Saturday. Love is off to a prolific start to his 2024 campaign, joining Pro Football Hall of Famer Warren Moon (1990) and four-time Dallas Cowboys Pro Bowler Tony Romo (2007) as only the third quarterback with at least 15 passing touchdowns and at least nine interceptions in the first six games of a season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. His 15 passing scores are tied for the third-most in the league while his nine interceptions co-lead the league. Should Love be unable to suit up, Green Bay has confidence in backup Malik Willis. The Packers are 3-0 this season in games in which he has thrown at least five passes, and he has totaled four total touchdowns (three passing and one rushing) and no interceptions on the year. 

"A lot more," LaFleur said Wednesday when asked about his comfort now in Willis than in Week 2 when Willis had been a Packer for just under three weeks and first started for an injured Love. "He's got a good understanding of what we're trying to get accomplished, of the techniques and fundamentals, so I would say much more confident. ... Everything was live that we had installed. He's done a really nice job."  

Love obviously remains the top option since he racked up 268 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions on 22 of 32 passing in a 29-22 victory at Detroit in Week 12 last season the last time these two teams squared off. He also can put the football in spots other quarterbacks wouldn't dare to try. 

Whichever quarterback is under center on Sunday will be throwing the football to arguably the best slot receiver in the NFL this season in Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed. His 366 receiving yards out of the slot are the most in the NFL, and he's been especially lethal going deep out of the slot on vertical routes with 234 of his 366 slot yards coming on such routes -- the most in the league -- along with two touchdowns, per NFL Pro Insights. Detroit's defense has been weak in this area, surrendering the third-most yards (286) on 21 slot vertical targets this season, tied for the second-most such targets faced in the NFL this season, per NFL Pro Insights. The league knows vertical routes out of the slot is where to hit the Lions for big plays, something LaFleur is certainly aware of. 

Another thing to look for is Detroit lining up in press man coverage up at the line of scrimmage: their outside corners line up in press coverage on 35.8% of their snaps this season, the fifth-highest figure in the league. Look for Packers receiver Romeo Doubs to be targeted in those situations because he has caught all five of his targets on the outside for 103 yards and a touchdown, per NFL Pro Insights. 

Green Bay also has a consistent run game thanks to 2022 NFL rushing champion Josh Jacobs, whose 667 rushing yards rank as the fourth-most in the NFL. In his first season with the Packers after five seasons with the Raiders, Jacobs has had the easiest running of his career: he has faced a light box on 49% of his carries, the highest rate of his career, because opponents have to respect the Packers aerial attack. 

Edge: Packers

Verdict: Packers pull off upset victory

Yes, the Lions have been dominant during their five-game winning streak. Let's take a closer look at the competition Detroit has faced during this streak: an up-and-down Arizona Cardinals squad that is now 4-4 (Lions won 20-13 in Arizona in Week 3), a similarly up-and-down Seattle Seahawks unit that is currently 4-4 (Lions won 42-29 in Week 4), a reeling 3-4 Dallas Cowboys team (Lions won 47-9 in Week 6), a 5-2 Minnesota Vikings that is now on a two-game losing streak after stumbling against the Los Angeles Rams in Week (Lions won 31-29 n Week 7) and a 1-6 Tennessee Titans outfit that doesn't have a primary starting quarterback (52-14 in Week 8). 

This Green Bay Packers squad threw Houston Texans star quarterback C.J. Stroud in the trash when they hosted him at Lambeau Field in Week 7, limiting him to a career-low 86 passing yards on 10 of 21 passing while sacking him four times in a 24-22 victory. Green Bay probably won't limit Goff and his cast of playmakers as severely, but their defense will muck up the game just enough to secure a narrow victory and first place in the NFC North entering their Week 10 bye week.