Yankees vs. Royals prediction, odds, line, time: 2024 ALDS Game 3 picks, MLB playoff bets by proven model

SportsLine's model simulated Wednesday's ALDS Game 3 Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees matchup 10,000 times

The fifth-seeded Kansas City Royals will look to get a leg up on the top-seeded New York Yankees when they meet in Game 3 of their 2024 ALDS matchup on Wednesday in Kansas City, Mo. Kansas City evened the series at 1-1 with a 4-2 win on Monday. The Yankees (94-68), who have lost five of their last eight, are looking to reach their first World Series since 2009. The Royals (86-76), who have won three of their last four games, are making their first playoff appearance since winning the 2015 World Series.

First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is set for 7:08 p.m. ET. New York has a 329-215 edge in the all-time series, and has won 17 of the last 23 meetings. New York is a -117 favorite on the money line (risk $117 to win $100) in the latest Yankees vs. Royals odds from SportsLine consensus, while the total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 8. Before making any Royals vs. Yankees picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. Entering the second week of the 2024 MLB playoffs, it's on a 32-17 roll on top-rated run-line picks (+822) that dates back to last season. Anybody following has seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Yankees vs. Royals and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Yankees vs. Royals: 

• Yankees vs. Royals money line: New York -117, Kansas City -102
• Yankees vs. Royals over/under: 8 runs
• Yankees vs. Royals run line: New York -1.5 (+143)
• NYY: The Yankees have hit the game total over in 64 of their last 107 games (+20.60 units)
• KC: The Royals have hit the game total under in 23 of their last 31 games (+15.25 units)
• Yankees vs. Royals picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Yankees vs. Royals streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why you should back the Yankees

New York is expected to send right-hander Clarke Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA) to the mound. In 16 starts this season, Schmidt has logged 85.1 innings, allowing 71 hits, 27 earned runs and 30 walks, while striking out 93. The fifth-year veteran has pitched in four games against the Royals in his career, including two starts. In 13.2 innings against Kansas City, he has a 3.29 ERA, allowing 16 hits, five earned runs and two walks with 11 strikeouts.

Center fielder Aaron Judge powers the New York offense. In 158 regular-season games, Judge hit .322 with 36 doubles, one triple, 58 homers, 144 RBI and 122 runs scored. He finished the season with hits in five of the last six games, including three multi-hit performances, including a homer in five consecutive games. In 34 career games against the Royals, Judge has a .300 average with five doubles, 13 homers and 29 RBI. See which team to pick here.

Why you should back the Royals

Kansas City is expected to counter with right-handed pitcher Seth Lugo (16-9, 3.00 ERA). Lugo led the Royals in wins in 33 starts, pitching 206.2 innings and allowing 177 hits, 69 earned runs and 48 walks with 181 strikeouts. He earned the win in Game 1 of the Wild Card round, a 2-1 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on Oct. 2. In that game, he pitched 4.1 innings, allowing five hits, one earned run and one walk, while striking out six. In 14 career games against the Yankees, he has posted a 5-2 record in 35.1 innings, allowing 25 hits, 10 earned runs and nine walks, while striking out 45.

Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is among Kansas City's top hitters. He played a key role in the Royals' sweep of the Orioles in the Wild Card, going 3-for-9 with two RBI. In 161 regular-season games, he batted .332 with 45 doubles, 11 triples, 32 homers and 109 RBI. In 17 career games against the Yankees, he is hitting .338 with five doubles, one triple, one homer and seven RBI. See which team to pick here.

How to make Yankees vs. Royals picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the run total, projecting 8.8 combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the MLB model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Yankees vs. Royals, and which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that's on a 32-17 roll on top-rated MLB run-line picks, and find out.