AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Missouri on Election Day

WASHINGTON (AP) — Nov. 5 is Election Day in Missouri, where the race for the White House tops the list of federal, state and local contests that voters will decide.

Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Donald Trump and two third-party candidates will compete for the state’s 10 electoral votes in the race to replace outgoing Democratic President Joe Biden.

Republican U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley faces a challenge from Democrat Lucas Kunce in his bid for a second term, while Republican Mike Kehoe and Democrat Crystal Quade look to succeed Republican incumbent Mike Parson as governor.

Further down the ballot, voters will decide a ballot measure that would amend the state constitution to undo Missouri’s near-total abortion ban. Missouri is one of 10 states that will put a ballot question on abortion before voters in November. Another ballot measure would amend the state constitution to both specify that only citizens may vote in elections and prohibit the use of a ranked choice voting system in state elections.

Missouri was once one of the nation’s most reliable bellwethers in presidential elections, having supported the winning presidential candidate in all but one election in the 20th century. The state has since favored the Republican candidate in the last six presidential elections.

In 2016 and 2020, the Democratic presidential nominees carried the St. Louis and Kansas City areas by wide margins (and the Columbia area by smaller margins), but not by enough to overcome the considerable Republican advantage throughout the state. Historically, the first results after poll close include votes cast early in person and by mail, which tended to favor Democrats. But before long, the Republicans would usually take the lead once more ballots cast in person on Election Day were tabulated.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it has determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Missouri does not have automatic recounts, but candidates for federal, judicial and state offices including state legislature may request a recount if the margin is less than 0.5% of the vote. Candidates for local offices may request a recount if the margin is less than 1% of the vote. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Here’s a look at what to expect in the 2024 election in Missouri:

Election Day

Nov. 5.

Poll closing time

8 p.m. ET.

Presidential electoral votes

10 awarded to statewide winner.

Key races and candidates

President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green).

U.S. Senate: Hawley (R) vs. Kunce (D) and three others.

Governor: Kehoe (R) vs. Quade (D) and two others.

Ballot measures: Constitutional Amendment No. 3 (right to abortion), Constitutional Amendment No. 7 (bans noncitizen voting and rank-choice voting).

Other races of interest

U.S. House, Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Treasurer, Attorney General, state Senate, state House.

Past presidential results

2020: Trump (R) 57%, Biden (D) 41%, AP race call: Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, 10:31 p.m. ET.

Voter registration and turnout

Registered voters: 4,277,046 (as of Nov. 8, 2022).

Voter turnout in Nov. 2020: 70% of registered voters.

Pre-Election Day voting

Votes cast before Election Day 2020: about 28% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2022: about 23% of the total vote.

Votes cast before Election Day 2024: See AP Advance Vote tracker.

How long does vote-counting take?

First votes reported, Nov. 3, 2020: 8:19 p.m. ET.

By midnight ET: about 68% of total votes cast were reported.

Associated Press writer Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.

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