Tracking Isaac, Joyce, and two other potential disturbances

HURRICANE ISAAC

Category 2 Hurricane Isaac is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph. A slower east-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Isaac is forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.

TROPICAL STORM JOYCE

Like Isaac, Joyce does not pose a threat to land. Joyce is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph, and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. A slow turn toward the north-northwest and north is forecast Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Joyce is forecast to gradually weaken, and could degenerate into a remnant low by early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.

Potential Development in the Western Caribbean

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of next week. This system is expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of next week, and interests in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Potential Development in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic

An elongated area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves toward the west and then northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.