Israel's killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah is 'devastating blow to Iran' - war expert

Dr Ahron Bregman, senior teaching fellow at King's College London’s Department of War Studies, says the killing is 'nothing less than an earthquake'

The killing of Hezbollah’s chief by Israel is “nothing less than an earthquake”, according to an expert.

The UK government has repeated its plea for calm in the Middle East after the death of Hassan Nasrallah, the long-standing Lebanese militant group leader. Dr Ahron Bregman, senior teaching fellow at King's College London’s Department of War Studies, says the killing is a “devastating blow to Iran, Hezbollah’s patron”.

Nasrallah’s death in the strike on Beirut late on Friday adds to concerns that the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could spill over. And Dr Bregman warned: “We are inching closer to the brink, and alarmingly, the progress seems to be in one direction : further escalations.”

The expert, who himself previously served in the Israeli military, said: “Killing Nasrallah, arguably the most powerful man in Lebanon, is no less than an earthquake. It impacts domestic Lebanese affairs, and it is a devastating blow to Iran, Hezbollah’s patron. What the Israelis have been doing in the last week or so is implementing a controlled escalation. They inflict Hezbollah blow after blow, raising the bar each time. The purpose is twofold: to convince Hezbollah to stop firing into Israel and force it to pull back from the border area.”

After news of Nasrallah’s death, British officials reiterated the Foreign Secretary's message to the UN earlier this week when he called for a ceasefire and a political solution. David Lammy told the UN Security Council on Wednesday: "A full-blown war is not in the interests of the Israeli or Lebanese people."

In its statement confirming Nasrallah's death, Hezbollah vowed to "continue the holy war against the enemy and in support of Palestine". Friday's strike on what the Israeli military said was Hezbollah's HQ was followed by additional air strikes on southern Beirut, prompting civilians to move north to find safety.

Dr Bregman added: “Hezbollah, although bruised and bleeding, is a powerful military opponent. And, despite the Israeli strikes on its arsenal, it has still got a substantial amount at its disposal. And here is a crucial question: what could be the next Israeli move in its controlled escalation? The killing of Nasrallah is such a massive escalation that it seems to me that the next major Israeli move could well be an actual limited ground invasion of Lebanon.

“Can Israel do that? The answer is yes, but moving into Lebanon is fraught with dangers. I served as an IDF artillery Captain during Operation Peace for Galilee” , later known as “The Lebanon War”.

“It was supposed to be a 72-hour-operation, but Israel got bogged down in Lebanon for 18 years. And the danger for the Israelis, if they do decide to send in tanks and troops, is that their current operations might well turn into another Lebanon War and that their forces get stuck facing Hezbollah’s guerrilla attacks.

“All eyes are on Iran. Hammering Hezbollah humiliates Iran and even puts in danger the Iranian regime, as it encourages internal opposition. If Iran decides to intervene directly to protect its Lebanese proxy, then this could lead to a devastating regional war. We are inching closer to the brink, and alarmingly, the progress seems to be in one direction: further escalations.”