November 4 is polling day in the 2024 US presidential election
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US election 2024: Is there an exit poll and what time are projections announced?

by · Manchester Evening News

Current Democratic vice president Kamala Harris or Republican rival and former president Donald Trump will soon be announced as the new president of the United States.

US citizens are taking to the polls on Tuesday, November 4, to cast their votes in all 50 states in what is looking like an extremely close contest between the two candidates.

The result will likely come down to seven swing states - Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, which holds the most sway with 19 votes in the electoral college.

READ MORE: Where to watch the US presidential election in UK tonight

The next president will be decided by who can secure the most electoral college votes, with each state having a set number based on the size of its population. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs meaning a candidate needs 270 to win and, in all but two states, the candidate that comes out on top takes the total number of electoral college votes for that state.

Going into election day, the two candidates were neck and neck with pollsters putting Ms Harris down for a marginal lead of less than one percentage point.

But when will we know who has won? In the UK, the exit poll predicts the winner as soon as polls close and it's usually highly accurate. So does the US have an exit poll? Here's everything you need to know.

Is there an exit poll in the US presidential election?

The US does exit polls slightly differently to the UK.

In the UK, polls close across the country at 10pm. Fieldworkers anonymously ask voters which candidate they selected as they leave polling stations and their answers form the basis of the poll. The exit poll is then broadcast by major news channels almost immediately after the polls close.

In the US, because of the different time zones across the nation and different rules in different states, polls will be closing throughout the night - the first at around midnight in the UK and the last in the early hours of the morning.

That means projected results will be coming in as the night goes on, instead of all at once like they do in the UK.

Once a state closes its polls, the winner can be predicted by the major US news networks, with the decisions made by teams of political scientists and data scientists. But they will only call the winner if they are confident of the result.

For states that traditionally vote Republican - Wyoming and Oklahoma for example - or safe Democrat seats - California or New York - the broadcasters are likely to call the result pretty much immediately, before votes are counted.

However for the swing states, networks may not make a call until most of the votes are counted and a winner becomes more clear. That means that some states might not be called for Ms Harris or Mr Trump for hours, possibly days.

As the winner is determined by the electoral college, if it is not clear who has the 270 votes needed to win, the wait to find out who is the next president may last a long time. For example in 2020, Joe Biden was not declared as the winner of Pennsylvania until Saturday - nearly four days after polling day - which secured him the votes he needed to become president.

What time will projections be announced?

The first projections will likely come shortly after midnight in the UK. Mr Trump will likely be projected for the Republican strongholds of Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina and West Virginia. Ms Harris is expected to pick up the safe Democratic states of Vermont and Virginia. This will likely happen before votes are counted up.

Polls will close in Georgia and North Carolina at the same time, but they may not be called for a while if the vote is as close as its predicted to be.

More polls will close throughout the night, with most coming to a close on the hour. Pennsylvania - one to watch - will close polls at 1am UK time. Again, a projection may not be made if the votes are close. The final polls close in Alaska at 6am.

After that, it's hard to tell whether a final result will be imminent or if it'll take longer to find out who the next president will be.