Trump And Harris Could Face Recounts In These Swing States After Tomorrow’s Election

Topline

With polling showing a neck-and-neck race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in battleground states, it’s possible states could have to hold recounts after Election Day if there’s only a narrow margin of votes separating the two politicians—or the losing candidate could call for one.

Key Facts

Arizona: The state will order a mandatory recount under state law if the difference between the candidates’ share of the vote count is 0.5% or less (Trump currently has a 2.2-point lead according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, but President Joe Biden’s 2020 margin of victory was 0.3 points).

Georgia: Candidates can ask for a recount of the results if there’s a 0.5% difference or less between the candidates’ vote share, and election officials and the Secretary of State can order a recount if there are any suspected errors or irregularities in the vote count (Trump leads by one points, but lost by around 0.2 points in 2020).

Michigan: Under new rules that were signed into law in August, candidates in Michigan can request a recount “if the candidate is able to allege a good-faith belief that, but for error in the canvass or returns of the votes, the candidate would have had a reasonable chance of winning the election.”

Nevada: Unless the election is tied, only the losing candidate can request a recount in Nevada, which has to be done within three days of the vote count being certified but doesn’t require any specific margin between the candidates.

North Carolina: Candidates can request a recount under state law if there’s a 1% or less difference between their share of the vote and the winning candidate (Trump is up by one point, and won by 1.3 points in 2020).

Pennsylvania: The state orders mandatory recounts if there’s a difference of 0.5% or less between candidates, and voters can also request recounts for specific precincts, which must allege a specific instance of fraud or error, or—if there’s no specific fraud allegation—must be requested in every single precinct in which that specific race took place (the polls are are exactly tied, and Biden won by 1.2 points in 2020).

Wisconsin: Candidates who have lost by one percent or less can request a recount based on a belief that a “specified defect, irregularity, or illegality occurred in the conduct of the election”—though if the losing candidate only asks for a recount in some areas of the state but not others, any opposing candidate in the race can ask for the rest of the state to also recount its results.

Where Are Recounts Most Likely?

It remains to be seen what the final vote counts will be and which states will hold recounts, as polling in all seven of the major battleground states suggests the election results will be extremely close. Pennsylvania and Nevada have particularly narrow margins, with averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight showing the two candidates are within 0.5% of each other in those states based on recent polls.

Could Recounts Delay The Election Getting Certified?

Recounts are ordered after states certify their election results—meaning all the votes are counted and finalized—so any recounts won’t stop a state from being called for either Trump or Harris. While the specific timelines for recounts vary by state, candidates are required to request recounts quickly, within a few days of the results being certified. That means recounts can be carried out and completed without interfering with election deadlines and well ahead of Congress certifying the final results on Jan. 6. In Georgia, for instance, the state re-certified Biden’s 2020 win in the state in early December 2020, after conducting both a machine recount and an audit of the state’s results that involved a hand recount.

Will Recounts Change The Election Result?

While recounts can affect the election results, in practice it’s pretty rare. Nonpartisan group FairVote, which advocates for ranked choice voting, conducted a review of all recounts between 2000 and 2023. It found only 36 statewide recounts had taken place in general elections during that period—out of 6,929 total races—with only three recounts actually reversing the election results. Those reversals all took place in races where there was a less than 0.06% difference between the candidates. FairVote noted recounts typically change approximately 551 votes on average, and often widen the gap between candidates instead of narrowing it.

Key Background

Polls show Harris and Trump are virtually tied ahead of Election Day, with a polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight Monday showing Harris up 48%-46.8%. It’s largely expected that the race will not be called on Election Day itself, and results will likely echo 2020, when it took several days for the race to be called for Biden as the election results were narrowly divided in battleground states. Recounts were carried out in 2020 in Georgia and in some Wisconsin counties, and Biden’s margin changed during the Georgia audit, though none of the recounts ultimately affected the final results. In 2016, Green Party candidate Jill Stein requested recounts in three battleground states after Trump won the presidential election, though only Wisconsin ended up actually carrying out the recount. Stein later dropped her recount requests, which cost her nearly $5 million to file.

Further Reading