Trump’s Betting Market Lead Narrowed Over The Weekend—But He Remains Bookmakers Favorite To Win

04 Nov 2024 by Siladitya Ray · Forbes

Topline

Former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the election betting markets narrowed sharply over the weekend—with the Democrat even taking a small lead in one of the five big markets—as the betting market responded to some favorable recent polling for Harris, including a shock poll showing her ahead in the red state of Iowa.

Republican presidential nominee, former President Donald Trump greets supporters during a campaign ... [+] event at the Resch Center in Green Bay, Wisconsin.Getty Images

Key Facts

According to the Election Betting Odds tracker, which consolidates betting numbers from five major markets—bookmakers now give Trump a 54.6% chance of winning in November, compared to 45% for Harris.

This is a major shift from last week’s numbers, which had Trump solidly ahead at 63% compared to his democratic opponent's odds of around 36%.

Bookmakers on PredictIt—where Trump’s lead was the narrowest before—now give Harris slightly better odds of winning this week at 55 cents per share (roughly equating to a 55% chance of winning) compared to 51 cents for Trump.

On Kalshi—which won a federal court ruling last month to continue accepting bets on the election—bookmakers predict Trump has an edge of 54% to 46%.

Bettors on the crypto-based betting platform Polymarket—whose numbers have been touted by both Trump and Elon Musk—also believe Trump is still the favorite, with a roughly 58% chance compared to Harris’s 42.2%.

While Trump is still comfortably ahead on Polymarket, the current numbers are a big shift from the 65-35 in Trump’s favor on Thursday.

What Triggered The Swing In The Election Betting Markets?

While there had been some movement in Harris’ favor since Friday, a big swing occurred late on Saturday night after well-respected pollster Ann Selzer released numbers from her team’s final survey in Iowa. Selzer’s poll, published by the Des Moines Register, showed Harris with a shock three-point lead over Trump (47%-44%) in a state the former president carried in 2016 and 2020. While the poll is likely an outlier—another poll by Emerson College showing Trump ahead 53%-43%—Selzer’s recent history of publishing some of the most accurate numbers for Iowa indicates the race may be closer than the bookmakers initially predicted. Immediately after the poll’s release, Harris briefly took a lead on Kalshi’s market, while Trump’s lead on Polymarket fell to around 11 points. Trump’s consolidated odds across five markets, however, have recovered slightly in the last 24 hours after dropping to 51-48 early on Sunday.

Big Number

0.9%. That is the size of Harris’ lead over Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.

Surprising Fact