Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Up By 1 Point In Latest Survey—As Harris Struggles With Latinos

22 Oct 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

Former President Donald Trump leads Harris by one point in the latest survey of likely voters in the crucial swing state of Nevada, where an erosion of support among Latino voters threatens to hurt her chances of winning the state in November.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump looks on during a Hispanic roundtable at Beauty Society ... [+] on Oct. 12 in North Las Vegas, Nevada.Getty Images

Key Facts

Harris trails Trump by one point, 47% to 46%, according to an AARP survey of likely voters released Tuesday (margin of error 4), while Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in a Washington Post-Schar School poll of likely voters released Monday (margin of error 4.8).

Harris has a 0.2-point edge in Nevada, according to Five Thirty Eight’s polling average, while an Emerson poll released Oct. 10 found her leading by one point, 48% to 47%, after the two were tied at 48% in September, and a Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump with an unusually large five-point advantage.

Nevada—which is the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes—has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among the key demographic.

Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters.

Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey that found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris.

Immigration and inflation top the list of Latino voter concerns in Nevada, according to the USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.

Big Number

56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Tangent

Nevada is one of three swing states, in addition to Wisconsin and Michigan, where Harris has an edge over Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight averages. Trump leads by narrow margins in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. Harris has a razor-thin edge in national polling.

Key Background