Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Leads In Latest Survey—But Undecided Voters Could Tip Results

Topline

The latest poll of likely Georgia voters found President Donald Trump with a four-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, as Trump appears on track to flip the state after losing the state to President Joe Biden in 2020.

Key Facts

Trump is up 47% to 43% among likely voters in Georgia, according to an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released Tuesday (margin of error 3.1), though with 8% of voters still undecided, the race could swing either way.

Harris is up 51% to 47% in Georgia in a Washington Post-Schar poll of likely voters released Monday (margin of error 4.5).

Trump leads 52% to 45% in a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters out Wednesday, though a Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters in the seven battleground states released Oct. 11 found Harris with a slim lead, 48% to 46%, after Trump led by one point in a head-to-head matchup with Biden in the Journal’s March poll.

Trump leads by one point (49% to 48%) in Georgia in an Emerson College poll out Thursday, after the group’s September survey showed him up by three points.

Most reputable polls over the past month show Trump ahead in Georgia, including a Quinnipiac University poll released Oct. 1 that found him up by six points and a Cook Political Report survey out Oct. 2 that shows him up by two points.

Trump is favored to win Georgia by 1.7 points in FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, by 2.5 points in RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker and by 1.5 points in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin—and Silver gives Trump a 65.6% chance of winning Georgia.

Until Biden’s 2020 win in Georgia by just under 12,000 votes, the state hadn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1992, but Georgia has moved to swing state status over the past decade as Democrats have improved their margins in federal and state elections.

Georgia’s shift from red to purple is widely credited to diversification in the Atlanta metro area, where the population grew by 15% between 2010 and 2020, while the white population shrank by 2%, according to the most recent census data.

Hillary Clinton won eight out of 10 counties in the Atlanta suburbs in the 2016 presidential election despite losing statewide, and former Rep. Stacy Abrams and President Joe Biden won most suburbs by even wider margins than Clinton in the 2018 gubernatorial campaign and 2020 presidential election, respectively, according to a FiveThirtyEight analysis—reflective of a broader national leftward shift among suburban voters.

Georgia Sens. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock also flipped Georgia’s Senate seats from red to blue in 2020, further cementing the state’s battleground status.

Contra

Republicans control the state Senate, the House and the governor’s office in Georgia and nine of its 14 representatives in Congress are Republicans. Republican Gov. Brian Kemp has staved off challenges from former Democratic Rep. Stacy Abrams in both 2018 and 2022, and increased his victory from one to seven points in the most recent election.

Big Number

1.6. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by nationally, according to Five Thirty Eight’s poll tracker.

Key Background

Georgia is one of seven swing states likely to decide who wins the presidential election. Harris leads Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, while Trump leads in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia, and the two are tied in Pennsylvania. The most likely path to victory for Harris runs through the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which have a combined 44 electoral votes. If she wins all three, plus all the other non-swing states Biden won in 2020, she would reach the 270 electoral-vote threshold needed to win the election. If Trump wins one of the Rust Belt states (most likely Pennsylvania, according to polls), and also carries Georgia and North Carolina, then he would likely break 270.

Further Reading

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris Leads By 1 Point In 7 Battlegrounds In Latest Survey (Forbes)

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads In 4 New National Surveys—Amid Virtual Tie In Swing States (Forbes)