Senate Races 2024: Here Are The Top Battlegrounds—As GOP Appears On Track To Take Control

22 Oct 2024 by Sara Dorn · Forbes

Topline

Republicans have increased their chances of taking control of the Senate in November, as the races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio—three seats held by Democrats—have tightened, and the GOP candidate in Montana has erased the Democratic incumbent’s polling lead.

Former President Barack Obama greets Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., during a rally for Vice President Kamala ... [+] Harris and her running mate Gov. Tim Walz in the Fitzgerald Field House at the University of Pittsburgh on Thursday, October 10, 2024. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Key Facts

Montana: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is widely considered one of the most vulnerable in the upper chamber, which Democrats currently hold 51-49, and an October New York Times/Siena poll shows his Republican opponent, former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, appears poised to oust him with an eight-point lead, 44% to 52%.

West Virginia: This seat will almost certainly flip to Republican control when Sen. Joe Manchin, one of the three independents in the Senate who caucus with Democrats, retires, as the state’s popular Republican governor, Jim Justice, is heavily favored to win.

Pennsylvania: Cook Political Report shifted the race between Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and former Bridgewater Associates CEO David McCormick to a toss-up Monday as McCormick has narrowed Casey’s lead in recent weeks, from five points at the end of September to 1.9 points, according to Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker.

Nebraska: In a surprise twist, Republican Sen. Deb Fischer is at an increased risk of losing her seat to union leader and independent candidate Dan Osborn in deep-red Nebraska, as Cook Political Report shifted the seat from “likely” to “lean Republican” on Monday following a string of internal polls from both campaigns that show the race is within single-digit margins.

Wisconsin: Businessman Eric Hovde has made inroads on Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s lead in recent weeks—she leads by 2.5 points in Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker, down from more than four points in September.

Ohio: In another toss-up race, Republican businessman Bernie Moreno has narrowed Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s polling lead from 3.6 points in early September to just 0.5 points, according to Real Clear Politics’ polling average.

Nevada: In a race rated “lean Democrat” by Cook Political Report, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is leading Republican Afghanistan war veteran Sam Brown by an average of 5.4 points in Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker.

Michigan: Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., is challenging Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., for retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s seat, rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report, though surveys show Slotkin with an edge, including an October Morning Consult poll that shows her leading by seven points.

Arizona: Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., is leading Republican Trump ally Kari Lake by single-digit margins in most polls in the contest for the seat held by independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who is not running for re-election.

What Is The Current Senate Majority?

Democrats have a razor-thin 51-49 majority over Republicans. That means if former President Donald Trump wins the election, Republicans need to flip just one seat to gain control of the upper chamber, since the vice president serves as the tie-breaking vote. If Vice President Kamala Harris wins, Democrats can afford to lose a single Senate seat.

Which States Are Most Likely To Flip?

West Virginia, Montana, Ohio and Michigan, in that order, according to polls. West Virginia is almost certain to flip to Republican control, while the GOP candidate has erased the Democratic incumbent’s lead in polling averages. Surveys show single-digit races in both Ohio and Michigan.

Will Any Gop-Held Senate Seats Flip?

It’s possible, but unlikely. The most competitive GOP races are in Florida, Nebraska and Texas, with the latter two rated “lean Republican” by Cook Political Report and Florida “likely Republican.” Sens. Rick Scott, R-Fla., and Ted Cruz, R-Texas, lead their Democratic challengers by single-digits in most polls.

Which Party Is Favored To Win The Senate?

YouGov’s model predicts Republicans win 51 seats and Democrats or independents who caucus with Democrats take 47, while The Economist predicts Republicans have a 70% chance of regaining control of the upper chamber.

Big Number

34. That’s the total number of Senate seats up for re-election this year, including 11 held by Republicans and 23 held by Democrats. None of the GOP-held seats are rated toss-ups.

Key Background

Democrats maintained control of the Senate by a narrow two-seat margin in the 2022 midterm after Trump-backed Republicans lost a string of high-profile races in the swing states of Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Democratic enthusiasm surrounding Vice President Kamala Harris’ entrance into the race could help Democrats eke out wins in tightly contested down-ballot races by drawing Harris supporters to the polls who would have otherwise sat out the race with President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket as she has erased Trump’s polling lead over Biden. The share of Americans who favor Democrats to win Congress has grown since Harris launched her campaign and has pulled out ahead of former President Donald Trump in polls. Republicans were favored to win Congress by 0.6 points on July 21, the day Biden dropped out of the race, and Democrats are now favored to win by 1.3 points, though the margins have narrowed from 2.6 points in early September, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. Democrats have erased Republicans’ fundraising lead—as of Sept. 30, the latest date for which filings are available, the two main national committees raising money to elect Democrats to the House and Senate had rasied $482.2 million in total this election cycle to Republicans’ $433.1 million.

What To Watch For

Republicans are slightly favored to win the House, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which rates 211 seats as safe, likely or leaning Republican and 206 seats as safe, likely or leaning Democratic. Republicans are defending eight toss-up seats, while Democrats are defending 10. Republicans are expected to flip three seats in North Carolina and Democrats are expected to flip one in Louisiana.