Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Up 3 Points In Latest Survey

17 Oct 2024 by Antonio Pequeño IV · Forbes

Topline

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump continues to hold a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona, according to a new survey, maintaining an edge in the swing state where immigration and abortion ballot measures will play a key role in how voting shakes out this November.

Trump's has maintained a lead over Harris in Arizona. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)Getty Images

Key Facts

Trump leads Harris by five points (51% to 46%) in a Saturday New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll, in line with the four-point lead he held over the vice president in September.

Trump also has a two-point lead in the latest Emerson poll (49% to 47%), holds a 1.6-point edge in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average and is ahead by 1.1 point in Real Clear Politics’ polling average.

But a Wall Street Journal poll published Friday finds Harris leading by two points (47% to 45%) in Arizona, where she benefits from more support than President Joe Biden had in March before he dropped out of the presidential race.

Trump holds an advantage in Arizona over Harris on the economy, the Times reported, noting the former president has a narrow edge on the question of who would better help the working class.

Get Forbes Breaking News Text Alerts: We’re launching text message alerts so you'll always know the biggest stories shaping the day’s headlines. Text “Alerts” to (201) 335-0739 or sign up here.

Ballot Initiatives On Immigration And Abortion Could Decide Arizona

Arizona voters will vote on the state’s Right to Abortion Initiative, which would codify abortion rights in the state’s constitution. An immigration and border law enforcement measure—which would make unlawfully crossing the Arizona border from Mexico a state crime, letting state police arrest and detain migrants and allowing state judges to deport them— will also be on the ballot. Harris and Democrats are banking on the abortion ballot measure to prove successful—as similar initiatives have in seven other states where they’ve been up for a vote—while Trump hopes for the same for the border enforcement measure. Immigration is a leading concern in Arizona, the Associated Press reported, noting frustration over illegal immigration persists in the state following a surge in migrant crossings.

Big Number

2.4 points. That is Harris’ national polls lead in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average. The vice president also commands a 1.5-point lead in Real Clear Politics’ polling average and leads by 2.5 points in Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin.

Tangent

Trump, who won Arizona in 2016, lost the battleground state by just 10,457 votes in 2020 to Biden. Despite the loss, Trump claimed victory in Arizona and later alleged the entire voter database of Maricopa County, the state’s most populous county, was deleted. Republican officials overseeing the election refuted Trump’s claim, with Maricopa County recorder Stephen Richer characterizing Trump’s statement as “unhinged.” Trump also attempted to press former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey (R) to overturn the election, telling the governor in a phone call if enough fraudulent votes were identified, it would flip the results in his favor, The Washington Post reported.

Key Background

Trump is battling with Harris in six other swing states in addition to Arizona. They all remain tightly contested.